NCAAF Picks: The Fighting Illinois of Illinois demonstrated last week why it is dangerous to write off any team in college football. The Illini handed Minnesota their first loss of the season to keep their bowl hopes alive and to cool off head coach Tim Beckman’s hot seat. The Ohio State Buckeyes survived an overtime scare at Penn State and are back in the Final Four playoff conversation.
The Buckeyes will host the Illini at Ohio Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ABC starting at 8 PM ET. Ohio State opened as a 29-point home favorite.
Buck$ for Bucks
Ohio State is 6-1 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, and 6-1 over the total after a 31-24 win at Penn State in which they failed to cover at 14 point chalks. Ohio State was written off for dead when QB Braxton Miller was declared out for the season due to injury but have instead responded to backup QB JT Barrett and rank eighth in the nation for scoring offense. Ohio State ranks 11th for total defense.
Illini on the Brink
Illinois is 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, and 4-4 on totals. The Illini are coming off a 28-24 home payout over Minnesota which snapped a three game losing streak. The metrics are still bad and not promising for the Illini however. Illinois ranks 79th in the nation for total offense and 114th for total defense.
Our Pick
Illinois has been an atrocious road betting value lately with just two payouts in their last 13 away games. The Illini have gone over the total in three out of their last five away games.
Ohio State has been a solid betting value at home with nine payouts in their last 14 games at Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes have gone over the total in eight out of their last 10 home games.
Ohio State has paid out in four out of their last six games against Illinois with four out of the last seven meetings between the Illini and Buckeyes going over the total. Ohio State has covered the spread in three out of their last four matchups with Illinois at Ohio Stadium. The Illini and Buckeyes have gone over the total in four out of their last six meetings at Ohio Stadium. We’ll call for Ohio State and over the total.
