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NCAAF Picks: Georgia Needs To Get On Track In The SEC This Weekend

The Georgia Bulldogs won a big non-conference game against the Clemson Tigers, but they lost an important SEC game to South Carolina. They need to regroup against Tennessee.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Bulldogs

Saturday, September 27th – 12:00 PM ET

Odds: Georgia -17

Why The Volunteers Will Cover

They will be able to score a decent amount of points against Georgia, making the Bulldogs score more than 38 to 40 points if they want to cover. Tennessee should be able to score at least 20 points in this game. Georgia’s defense seemed to be really good when it humiliated Clemson in the second half of a 45-21 win in the season opener. However, Georgia’s defense didn’t do much of anything in its 38-35 loss to South Carolina. The Bulldogs came up with a big late interception, but couldn’t really stop the Gamecocks until midway through the fourth quarter. For the first three and a half quarters of that game, South Carolina was moving the ball up and down the field, in the first half with the pass and in the second half with the run. Georgia’s defensive line got pushed around, and if Tennessee faces a team whose defensive line isn’t that strong, the Volunteers can do some damage. Tennessee’s offensive line is the weakest part of the Vols’ offense, so if Georgia’s defensive line is not in a position to hurt Tennessee up front, the Vols have a way in which they can keep this game close and maybe even win it. Tennessee has playmakers in its receiving corps such as Marquez North. If quarterback Justin Worley gets some time to throw the ball, Tennessee can score a lot, and it would take work for Georgia to cover. The Bulldogs probably wouldn’t be able to do so.

Why The Bulldogs Will Cover

They are facing a team that is young and unproven along the lines on both offense and defense. Tennessee has had to replace a lot of starters on both lines, and the Volunteers realized in their 34-10 loss to Oklahoma that you can have a lot of talent at the wide receiver and quarterback positions and still lose by big margins if you can’t block on offense or rush the passer on defense. Tennessee’s defense struggled for most of the first half against Oklahoma before improving in the second half. The Vols are making some progress there, and they have reason to think that they can improve as a team because of that. However, Tennessee’s offensive line never truly learned how to thwart Oklahoma’s defensive front. The slowness with which the Vols reacted as pass protectors is what prevented their passing game from being able to produce more against the Sooners. Georgia’s defensive line was good against Clemson, but it was not good against South Carolina. If the bad version of the Bulldogs shows up against Tennessee, this team will be in trouble, but if the good version shows up, Georgia should win this game by more than 20 points.

Outlook

Georgia will win the game, but its defense is still a little too shaky to trust right now. Georgia’s defense might be really good in October, but October isn’t here yet. Tennessee will score enough to cover.

Pick: Tennessee +17

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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