NCAAF Picks: The list of college football coaches who have done a better job than Kansas State’s Bill Snyder cannot be a long one. Snyder has taken the worst program in the history of college football and has built it into a perennial national power that plays the best fundamental football that can be found anywhere. TCU head coach Gary Patterson deserves considerable credit as well for adapting to the realities of the modern game by installing the spread offense to complement his traditionally stout defense with great success this year.
In what is a virtual Final Four playoff elimination game the TCU Horned Frogs will host the Kansas State Wildcats at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday with coverage on FOX starting at 7:30 PM ET. TCU opened as a five point favorite.
Purple goes Gold
Kansas State is 7-1 straight up, 6-2 against the spread, and 5-3 over the total. The Wildcats scored their sixth consecutive payout last week in a 48-14 home rout over Oklahoma State. Defense is the foundation of K State’s success. The Wildcats rank 12th in the nation for points allowed and a much underrated 16th for scoring offense.
Frogs enjoy Leap in Value
TCU is 7-1 SU and ATS with a 5-3 mark over the total. TCU is coming off a 31-30 payout at West Virginia as 3.5 point favorites in their first loss ATS on the season. The Frogs won the game on a 36 yard field goal at the gun. TCU ranks fourth in the nation for total offense and second for scoring offense. The offensive numbers are particularly impressive considering that this is the first season of the new spread scheme. The highly regarded TCU defense ranks 41st in the nation for points allowed. That higher than expected number can best be attributed to playing in the high flying Big 12 Conference.
Our Pick
TCU has seen a sharp increase in board value at home with six payouts in their last seven games at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The Frogs have gone over the total in five out of their last seven home games.
Kansas State has been among the better values in any sport as a road team however with 13 payouts in their last 18 away matchups. The Wildcats have gone over the total in five out of their last eight road games.
The road team has covered the previous two meetings in this head to head series. Last year TCU covered a 33-31 loss at Kansas State.
With so much at stake in this one we expect a tight game and will call for Kansas State (+5) and under the total.
