NCAAF Picks: The Fighting Illini of Illinois barely avoided a near death experience for embattled head coach Tim Beckman as they rallied to stave off disaster with a 42-35 home win over Texas State but still have a multitude of problems. Nebraska had their own scare with 1-AA McNeese State three weeks ago but has flashed a powerful pose in the two games that followed.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers (-20.5) will host the Fighting Illini of Illinois at Memorial Stadium on Saturday with coverage on Big Ten Network starting at 9 PM ET. Please check BetDSI for the latest football odds.
Overlays with Illini
Illinois is 3-1 straight up, 1-3 against the spread, and 2-2 on totals. The Illini have some very concerning metrics as they rank 67th overall for total offense, 95th for total defense, and 103rd for points allowed. One positive has been QB Wes Lunt, the transfer from Oklahoma State, who has a 65% completion rate good for 1237 yards and an 11-3 TD-INT ratio. Tailback Josh Ferguson is averaging 6.3 yards per carry and Geronimo Allison has 18.8 yards per catch.
Big Red in the Black
Nebraska is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and 3-1 over the total. The Huskers are coming off a 41-31 home payout over Miami as their offense climbed to rank 8th in the nation overall and 11th for scoring. Runningback Ameer Abdullah, who saved Nebraska’s season with a spectacular game-winning TD against McNeese State, is a top shelf Heisman Trophy candidate with 625 yards rushing and 6.8 yards per carry with five TDs. Both Jordan Westerkamp and Kenny Bell are averaging over 20 yards per catch. The defense has shown improvement and ranks 33rd overall in the nation.
Matchup and Pick
Illinois has been one of the worst betting values on the board in any sport in away games as they have paid out in just one out of their last 11 road matchups with four out of their last five away games going under the total. Nebraska has been a decent betting value at home with just seven losses against the spread in their last 18 home games as six out of their last 10 home games have gone over the total. Last year Nebraska scored a 39-19 home payout over Illinois as 8.5 point home favorites as the game stayed under the total of 62.5. We’ll call for Nebraska (-20.5) to cover this Big Ten matchup.
