NCAAF Picks: “Get out while the getting is good” was the obvious thought process of first year Washington Huskies head coach Chris Petersen who left Boise State as its most successful coach in history to take over a UW program that was looking lethargic but is coming off its biggest win of the year. The Oregon Ducks were touted as Final Four Playoff material but their offensive line woes and lack of a dominant defense cost them a loss to Arizona but they showed great character and resiliency with a dominant win at UCLA last week.
The Ducks will host the Huskies at Autzen Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on Fox Sports 1 starting at 8 PM ET.
Ducky Rebound
Oregon is 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread and 2-3-1 under the total. The Ducks got paid in an impressive 42-30 win at UCLA after opening up a 42-10 lead. QB Marcus Mariota was outstanding with 210 yards passing with 2 TD’s and 75 yards rushing with 2 more TD’s to trigger the nation’s seventh ranked scoring offense.
Out of the Den?
Washington is 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, and 1-5 under the total after a 31-7 win at much improved Cal. It was the Huskies most impressive win yet and perhaps an indication that they are ready to break out. But the metrics indicate this is still a mediocre team that ranks 101st for total offense and 66th for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
Washington has been a poor betting value on the road with just six payouts in their last 18 away matchups with six out of their last nine road tilts going over the total. Oregon has suffered a significant drop in board value at home however with just three payouts in their last nine games at Autzen Stadium with nine out of their last 16 home games going over the total.
Oregon has totally owned the cashier’s cage in this head-to-head series with zero losses against the spread in their last 10 meetings with Washington as three out of the last five meetings between the Huskies and Ducks going over the total. Washington has come away empty against the spread in their last six visits to Autzen Stadium with their last two visits going over the total.
Oregon demonstrated a mental toughness last week that has been missing in the past. With such a strong head-to-head mark and Washington’s poor road value we’ll call for Oregon and over the total.
