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NCAAF Picks: Oregon State Tries To Become A Lot Sharper In Its Visit To The Islands

The Oregon State Beavers are coming off a victory against a relatively bad team from the lower division of college football. They hope to show improvement this upcoming weekend.

Oregon State Beavers @ Hawaii Warriors

Saturday, September 6th – 10:35 PM ET

Odds: Oregon State -10.5

Why The Beavers Will Cover

They are the much better team with the quarterback who can make a difference for them against Hawaii. The big reason a lot of bettors might get sucked into the belief that Hawaii is going to keep this game close is that the Warriors very nearly defeated the Washington Huskies last Saturday night. Hawaii held Washington to only 17 points. The Huskies were ranked 25th in the Associated Press poll, and so they were expected to drill Hawaii by about three touchdowns, but Washington was barely hanging on by a fingernail in the end. The Huskies had to stop Hawaii near midfield in the final few minutes, with the Warriors needing just a field goal to win. Why did this happen, though? The Huskies had suspended Cyler Miles, their expected starting quarterback, for that game, so their backups were thrust into a position of responsibility, and they didn’t handle it very well. Husky quarterback Jeff Lindquist was just 10 of 26 throwing the ball for 162 yards. The Huskies gained under 350 yards and scored no points in the second half, barely getting any first downs in the first 20 minutes after halftime. This was the big reason why Washington almost lost to Hawaii.

Oregon State has Sean Mannion, its established veteran quarterback, as the leader of its offense in this game. Mannion can throw the ball consistently and competently, and that’s going to create a situation which is very different from what Washington faced against Hawaii last week. This will open things up for Oregon State.

Why The Warriors Will Cover

They showed against Washington that they’re a force to be reckoned with. It might be true that the Huskies were not playing with their starting quarterback, but a lot of people would come back with the following point: Washington, a Pac-12 program, has better athletes than Hawaii at just about every position. Why shouldn’t the Huskies be able to just cram the ball down the Warriors’ throats? Hawaii’s run defense and especially the interior of its defensive line were really strong against Washington. If that same kind of performance can be pulled off against Oregon State, the Beavers have to know that Mannion is not going to get much of any time in the pocket. If Hawaii can apply heavy pressure to the trigger man who makes the rest of Oregon State’s passing game work, the Warriors can contain a Pac-12 North Division offense for the second straight week. Hawaii is an energized and motivated team under head coach Norm Chow. The Warriors have the look and feel of a team that’s just one play away from winning a game and turning around its season. This game is going to be close enough for Hawaii to win in the end.

Outlook

Sean Mannion is a different quarterback from what Hawaii faced last week with Jeff Lindquist. Mannion is a veteran who knows how, when and where to get rid of the ball. This is going to expose Hawaii’s pass defense, especially in the secondary. Oregon State will cover. 

Pick: Oregon State -10.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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