The Purdue Boilermakers just got blown out at home by Central Michigan, a team from the Mid-American Conference. What can Purdue do to slow down the Notre Dame Fighting Irish?
Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, September 13th – 7:40 PM ET
Odds: Notre Dame -28
Why The Boilermakers Will Cover
They have to be humiliated and angry after their poor performance against Central Michigan. The big thing that the Boilermakers have to regret, though, is not anything related to yards or pass completions or penalties or time of possessions. If you look at the box score from the Central Michigan loss, Purdue was virtually even in yards (seven fewer yards), rushing yards (only 39 fewer), passing yards (32 more than Central Michigan), time of possession (minus one minute and 24 seconds), and dead even in first downs, 19-19. The Boilermakers simply didn’t take care of the ball. They turned the ball over three times while Central Michigan gave up the ball only once. That basic difference helped Central Michigan to win that game as easily as it did. If Purdue can play a turnover-free game and not hand any breaks to Notre Dame, the Boilermakers can prevent Notre Dame from scoring a few extra touchdowns. Purdue might not be able to prevent Notre Dame from winning the game outright, but it can certainly turn this game from a 35-point game to a 21-point game by being sound with the ball and not making any careless plays. In terms of covering the spread, Purdue can win not by what it does, but more by what it avoids doing. That’s the big difference to pay attention to on Saturday night in South Bend, Indiana.
Why The Fighting Irish Will Cover
They are a far better team than Purdue, and the bigger thing to point out is that Notre Dame covered a 28-point spread (though the betting line was just 4.5 points) against the Michigan Wolverines last weekend. Michigan is a much, much better team than Purdue, and Notre Dame still made Michigan look silly. Notre Dame might not be a great team overall. If it runs into the best teams in the land, it might not be able to measure up. However, Michigan is a mediocre team and Purdue is a bad team. There’s no way to sugarcoat the Boilermakers’ embarrassing performance against Central Michigan. Yes, the yardage and first down totals were not lopsided. Yet, Purdue had to throw the ball 33 times more than Central Michigan, 49-16, in order to get a 32-yard advantage in terms of passing yards. For Purdue to gain 204 passing yards on 49 attempts creates an average of just over four yards per passing attempt, which is about as poor an average in that statistic as you’ll ever see. Purdue is just horrible, and Notre Dame should be able to walk all over that kind of a team.
Outlook
This betting situation is just not complicated, especially since this is Notre Dame’s home game and not Purdue’s. If this had been at Purdue’s home field, maybe a 28-point spread wouldn’t seem so safe. It’s safe here.
Pick: Notre Dame -28
