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NCAAF Picks: Seminoles Three-Score Favorite Over Pokes

The Florida State Seminoles are the defending national champions in college football. They should be a great team this year, but they have to go out on the field and prove it.

Florida State Seminoles vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys – Game In Arlington, Tex.

Saturday, August 30th – 8:05 PM ET

Odds: Florida State -17.5

Why The Seminoles Can Cover

They are a tremendous team with their best player back for more this season. Jameis Winston was the Heisman Trophy winner last year, and he could do it all again this year, becoming the first two-time Heisman winner since Archie Griffin of Ohio State in 1974 and ’75. Winston makes the right reads. He can make all the NFL-level throws in the book. He can run well, although he’s not as fast as some of the better running quarterbacks in the country, such as Marcus Mariota of Oregon. Winston is a student of the game, not just a great athlete. His greatness is due to the fact that he combines great skill with great on-field smarts and field awareness. He is the center of what Florida State wants and hopes to do on offense. He should be good in this game, and as long as he’s good instead of wobbling as he did against Auburn in the BCS National Championship Game, Florida State is going to be just fine.

The Seminoles should also win because coach Jimbo Fisher has amassed such great depth and strength along his offensive and defensive lines. Florida State has hulking but agile linemen who are going to fill up the middle and achieve all of this team’s goals in terms of controlling the point of attack on both sides of the offense-defense mixture. Oklahoma State doesn’t seem to be deep enough to compete with Florida State.

Why The Cowboys Can Cover

They have a quarterback who might be able to grow up this season and learn from a stop-and-start 2013. While Clint Chelf became the answer at quarterback for Oklahoma State a year ago, J.W. Walsh was removed from the starting quarterback slot. The experience was painful, but college players generally have to go through some tough times and a lot of doubt before they can fully learn how to play at the next level, absorb a system of plays and reads, and then step up their games. Walsh had to endure some hard knocks, but he could very easily be ready to play at his best. Walsh is very competent as a running quarterback, so if he’s able to improve as a passer, he’ll give head coach Mike Gundy the complete package. If Walsh can become a reliable player, the rest of the Oklahoma State offense can fall snugly into place. This offers the Cowboys the key to a better-than-expected performance against Florida State and a huge upset against a team that might be overconfident after last year’s national championship.

Outlook

If Jameis Winston is merely solid, not even great, Florida State will roll. Winston should be expected to play well. It’s that simple. No need to overthink this one.

Picks: Florida State -17.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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