NCAAF Picks: One of the most shocking and humiliating losses in the history of the Oklahoma Sooners occurred last year when they were ambushed 41-12 by eventual Big 12 champion Baylor. The defeat was emblematic in regards to the stunning reversal of fortune and change of perception of both teams. The Sooners and their fans have had revenge on their mind for the past year and will finally get their shot on Saturday.
The Oklahoma Sooners will host the Baylor Bears at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on Saturday with coverage on Fox Sports 1 starting at noon ET. Oklahoma opened as a 3.5-point favorite.
Overrated Overlays
Oklahoma is 6-2 straight up, 4-4 against the spread, and 7-1 over the total. The Sooners are coming off a 59-14 payout at Iowa State as 15.5 point favorites that followed an ugly 31-30 home loss to Kansas State. The Sooners rank ninth for scoring offense but 59th for total defense which does not match up well against the potent Bears. OU is1-3 ATS at home this season with three of those four games going over the total. Oklahoma’s Sugar Bowl win over Alabama continues to be taken for far more than it was actually worth.
Bear Market
Baylor is 7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, and 5-3 over the total. Baylor has the top ranked overall and scoring offense in the nation with an improved defense that ranks 17th overall nationally. Baylor destroyed Kansas last week 60-14 as 34.5 point home chalks. QB Bryce Petty has an eye-popping 20-3 TD-INT ratio. WR’s KD Cannon and Corey Coleman are both over 19 yards per catch.
NCAAF Picks
Baylor has been a solid betting value on the road as the Bears have covered the spread in eight out of their last 13 away games. Baylor has gone over the total in four out of their last seven away games.
Oklahoma has been an unreliable betting value at home with just five payouts in their last 14 games at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The Sooners have gone over the total in six out of their last eight home games.
Baylor has been in firm control of the cashier’s cage in their head to head series with Oklahoma. The Bears have paid out in eight out of their last 11 games against the Sooners with five out of the last seven games between Baylor and Oklahoma going over the total. Baylor has come away with the money in their last six consecutive visits to Oklahoma with three out of the last four meetings at OU between the Bears and Sooners going over the total.
We’ll call for Baylor (+3.5) and over the total.
