NCAAF Picks: Surging Arizona visits USC in battle for Pac-12 South advantage

NCAAF Picks:  The Arizona Wildcats have caught the attention of the nation and college football handicappers after last week’s stunning 31-24 win at Oregon as 21 point dogs that was no fluke.  The USC Trojans are coming off a nightmare 38-34 home loss to Arizona State in which the Sun Devils scored on a 46 yard Hail Mary TD pass at the gun.  The Pac 12 South Division race is wide open with five teams now in the mix and in one of the most important matchups in the Pac 12 South this season.

The Wildcats will host the Trojans at Arizona Stadium Saturday night with coverage on ESPN2 starting at 10:30 PM ET.  USC is listed as a 2.5-point road favorite.

Leaky Trojans

USC is 3-2 straight up and against the spread with a 3-2 mark over the total after last week’s debacle as they rank a revealing 66^th in the nation for overall defense which a lethargic offense that ranks 56^th for scoring.

Wisdom of Solomon

Arizona is 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 2-3 under the total.  Freshman QB Anu Solomon is playing like a senior with a 153.1 QB rating and 14-4 TD-INT ratio.  Nick Wilson is keeping defenses honest with 6.4 yards per carry.  The Wildcats rank seventh nationally for total offense but 89^th for total defense although the unit came up clutch at Oregon.

Matchup and Pick
USC has covered four out of their last six away games which is quite a turnaround as before that they has lost nine straight road matchups against the spread.  USC has gone under the total in four out of their last seven road games.  Arizona has been a decent board value at home with just four losses against the spread in their last 10 games at Arizona Stadium as seven out of their last 10 home games have gone under the total.  Arizona has had the upper hand at the Cashier’s Cage in this head to head series with six payouts in their last nine games against USC with the last three meetings going over the total.  Arizona has paid out in three out of their last four home games with USC and won an epic 39-36 payout two years ago that soared over the total of 68.5.  We’ll call for Arizona (+2.5) and over the total.