NCAAF Picks: For the second consecutive season the North Carolina Tar Heels have stumbled out of the gate with a defense that has been exposed as a helpless liability. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have one of the top defenses in the country and QB Everett Golson has been clutch as evidenced by his game winning TD pass with a minute to play last week in a 17-14 payout against Stanford.
The Fighting Irish will host the Tar Heels on Saturday at Notre Dame Stadium with coverage on NBC Starting at 3:30 PM ET. Notre Dame is expected to open as a solid favorite for this one.
Luck of the Leprechaun
Notre Dame is 5-0 straight up, 4-1 against the spread, and 1-4 under the total. The Irish rank third in the nation for scoring defense and Golson has a stellar 164.6 QB rating with an 11-2 TD-INT ratio.
Carolina Blue
North Carolina is 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS, and 2-2 on totals. Carolina has lost three games in a row and is coming off a 34-17 home loss to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels rank 121st in the nation for overall defense and 124th for scoring defense while the offense is a mediocre 68th overall nationally. Head coach Larry Fedora is facing increased doubts in his third season at Chapel Hill.
Matchup and Pick
North Carolina has been a decent road value with seven payouts in their last 11 away games as 10 out of their last 13 away games have gone under the total. Notre Dame has covered the spread in five out of their last eight home games with five out of their last seven home games going under the total.
North Carolina has been a terrible board value as a dog with just two payouts in their last 11 games as a pup with five out of their last eight games as a dog going under the total. The Irish, conversely, have covered the spread in five out of their last nine games as a chalk with just four out of their last 20 games as a favorite going over the total. We’ll call for the home favorite Notre Dame and under the total in this one.
