NCAAF Picks: The UCLA Bruins made a huge statement last week in a dominating home payout over crosstown rival USC. Bruins QB Brett Hundley stepped into the Heisman Trophy conversation with a stellar performance in that win. The lack of a reliable offense has caught up to the Stanford Cardinal and head coach David Shaw in what has turned out to be a disappointing season.
The UCLA Bruins will host the Stanford Cardinal on Friday at LA Memorial Coliseum with coverage on ABC starting at 3:30 PM ET. UCLA opened as a four point favorite.
Cardinal Ink
Stanford is suffering from a steep drop after winning the Pac 12 title last year. The Cardinal is 6-5 straight up, 5-6 against the spread, and 2-8 under the total. Stanford is coming off a 38-17 payout at Cal which ended a two game losing streak and made the Cardinal bowl eligible. Stanford’s decline has been due to an offense that ranks 81st in the nation overall and 89th for scoring. The power running game that was a past Stanford staple now ranks 85th overall in the nation. The Stanford defense has been their strength and ranks sixth overall nationally.
Title Bruin?
UCLA is 9-2 SU, 4-7 ATS, and 4-6-1 under the total. The Bruins are coming off a 38-20 payout over USC and can clinch the Pac 12 South Division title with a win over Stanford. Hundley passed for 326 yards and 3 TD’s in the win last week. Hundley has a 160.5 QB rating with a 20-5 TD-INT ratio. Paul Perkins has kept defenses honest with 1265 yards rushing and 5.9 yards per carry. The UCLA defense ranks 68th overall and is what will likely prevent a Final Four playoff berth.
Matchup and Pick
UCLA has been a slightly above par play at home with 11 payouts in their last 20 games at the Rose Bowl. The Bruins have gone over the total in seven out of their last 11 home games.
Stanford has slipped as a betting value on the road with just three payouts in their last 10 away matchups. The Cardinal has gone under the total in 12 out of their last 16 away games.
Stanford has covered the spread in five out of their last six games against UCLA with three out of their last four games against the Bruins going over the total. UCLA has covered the spread in three out of their last five home games against the Cardinal with five out of the last six meetings between UCLA and Stanford at the Rose Bowl going under the total.
We like UCLA and under the total in this one.
