NCAAF Picks: The defending national champion Florida State Seminoles have become the textbook definition of the word “overlay.” The Seminoles are undefeated straight up but have been one of the worst betting values on the board. The Virginia Cavaliers are a bubble bowl team with no more margin for error if they want a post season bid and to keep Mike London as their head coach.
The Seminoles will host the Cavaliers at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN starring at 6:30 PM ET.
Cavs Show Value Decline
Virginia is 4-5 straight up, 5-3-1 against the spread, and 3-6 under the total. Virginia has failed to cover the spread in their last four games and has lost three games in a row straight up. The Cavs are coming off an ugly 35-10 loss at Georgia Tech. London was on one of the hottest seats in the land after nearly getting fired last year and must produce a bowl to keep his job. An offense that ranks 85th in the nation for scoring is London’s main problem.
Losing While Winning
Florida State is 8-0 SU but 2-6 ATS and 4-4 on totals. Florida State is coming off a 42-31 win at Louisville after falling behind 21-0. The combination of getting the best shot of every opponent and a flood of public betting money has killed FSU’s board value. However, undefeated QB Jameis Winston and a talented core have allowed the Seminoles to keep on track for the playoffs.
Matchup and Pick
The Seminoles have been a good long-term betting value at home with 11 payouts in their last 17 games at Doak Campbell Stadium but they have failed to get the money in four out of their most recent five home games. FSU has gone under the total in five out of their last six home games. The Seminoles have covered the spread in just two out of their last 10 games as a favorite with six out of their last 10 games as a chalk going under the total.
Virginia has been a subpar road team with just eight payouts in their last 18 away matchups. The Cavaliers have gone over the total in four out of their last five road tilts. Virginia has gotten good betting value as a dog lately with five payouts in their last six games as a pup. The Cavaliers have gone under the total in four out of their last five games as a pup.
Virginia has covered the spread in four out of their last seven games against Florida State with the last nine consecutive meetings between Florida State and Virginia going under the total. The Cavs and Seminoles have split their last four games ATS at Doak Campbell Stadium.
We’ll call for Virginia and under the total.
