NCAAF Picks: Money, of course, was the main reason that the Louisville Cardinals departed from the American Athletic Conference for the Atlantic Coast Conference. A big part of the reason the ACC can offer more money is that they boast a marquee national championship program such as the Florida State Seminoles. The Cardinals will have the opportunity to spring the trap as a very capable home dog on Thursday night against the Noles with a national television audience looking on.
The Cardinals will host the Seminoles at Papa John’s Stadium on Thursday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Overrated Overlays?
Florida State is coming off a well-earned bye week that followed their 31-27 win over Notre Dame in which they failed to cover as 9.5 point home chalks. The Seminoles are 7-0 straight up but 1-6 against the spread and 3-4 under the total. The defending national champions have the metrics of a team that is nowhere near top tier status. FSU ranks 47th in the nation for total offense and 53rd for total defense. The one thing that the Seminoles do have is QB Jameis Winston. The 2013 Heisman Trophy winner has a QB rating of 160.0 and saved their season with clutch play in that win over Notre Dame.
Cards Soar with Dominant Defense
Louisville is 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, and 1-6-1 under the total. The Cardinals have the top ranked defense in the nation and rank fourth for points allowed. Offense is the Cardinals problem as they rank a poor 94th overall. Defense and what will be a raucous home crowd combined with the coaching of Bobby Petrino make Louisville a dangerous dog.
Matchup and Pick
Florida State has struggled to maintain betting value on the road with just four payouts in their last 14 away matchups. Florida State has gone over the total in nine out of their last 11 away games.
Louisville has also struggled to maintain betting value at home with just six payouts in their last 16 home games. The Cardinals have gone over the total in just three out of their last 14 home games.
This is the first head-to-head meeting between these two teams since 2002, when the Cardinals won at home on Thursday night. Sound familiar? We’ll call for a repeat 12 years later as Louisville gets the outright upset in this one and ends FSU’s 23-game winning streak.
