The Nevada Wolf Pack (22-14) face off against the Morehead State Eagles (23-12) in the fourth round of the CBI tournament at Lawlor Events Center. The game begins at 9:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Mar. 30 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Wolf Pack lost a tough one against Morehead State 86-83 in the 4. Tyron Criswell finished with 31 points to lead the game. The Eagles, meanwhile, are coming off an 86-83 win against Nevada in the 4.
Over the last five games, Cameron Oliver and Criswell have played well for the Wolf Pack. During that stretch, Oliver has averaged 20.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.6 steals, 3.0 blocks, and 1.2 three-pointers. Not to be outdone, Criswell has put up 19.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.6 blocks, and 0.8 three-pointers. Gaines has also been on a tear in the same span, averaging 15.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.2 steals while leading the Eagles.
Baskets could be hard to come by as Nevada ranks fourth in the nation, allowing just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, while Morehead State is sixth (102.4). Furthermore, the defense of the Eagles should have an advantage in terms of eFG%. They’re sixth in the nation in forcing misses (opponents’ eFG% of 50.2%), while the offense of the Wolf Pack ranks 302nd in eFG% (46.8%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Eagles won the first game 86-83. Gaines put up 27 points and 14 rebounds.
The Wolf Pack are hoping to build on their records of 22-14 Straight Up (SU) and 19-15 Against The Spread (ATS). They are 7-2 ATS over their last 10 games. The Wolf Pack are one of the best in Division I in terms of free throw percentage, shooting an impressive .734 from the free throw line. The Wolf Pack have a distinct advantage on the boards in this matchup. They are the 18th-ranked rebounding team in Division I, averaging 40.4 per game, while the Eagles rank 116th in the nation with 37.2 per game. Nevada’s defense can be considered for best in the country, allowing a Division I-best .398 opponent field-goal percentage.
Across the court, the Eagles head into the game with records of 19-14 ATS and 23-12 SU. Morehead State performed well ATS during its last 10 games, earning a 7-3 record. Teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Eagles, who are the sixth-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .438.
With the Eagles’ last win against the Wolf Pack, their SU record rises to 2-0 over Nevada. At 1-1, they are even ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mor, ATS Winner – Mor
Notes
Nevada scores just 77.7 points per home game (ranked 114th). Morehead State ranks 72nd in points allowed on the road, giving up 71.3 points.
The Morehead State Eagles have a defensive rating of 102.4 (ranked sixth), while the Nevada Wolf Pack have an offensive rating of 103.9 (ranked 219th).
Nevada averages 72.6 possessions per game, scoring 1.039 points on each possession. While Morehead State averages fewer possessions per game with 66.8, they score more points per possession with 1.100.
The Morehead State Eagles average an effective field goal percentage of 49.0% this season. The Nevada Wolf Pack have split their games this season (7-7) when opponents have an eFG% of 49.0% or greater.
On average, Nevada attempts 17.0 three pointers and Morehead State attempts 15.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Nevada Wolf Pack have a 5-7 record while the Morehead State Eagles are even at 4-4.
The Nevada Wolf Pack are one of the top rebounding teams in the nation with an average of 40.4 per game (ranked 18th). The Morehead State Eagles are outside the top 100 with 37.2 rebounds per game (ranked 116th).
Morehead State ranks among the best in the country in offensive rebounding at fourth, while Nevada ranks a solid 20th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Nevada forces a turnover rate of 17.7%, ranked sixth in the nation. When Morehead State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 12-7 record.
