It will be a battle between MWC opponents when the Utah State Aggies (12-11, 5-5 MWC) welcome the New Mexico Lobos (11-11, 6-3 MWC) to Dee Glen Smith Spectrum. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 31, 2018.
Utah State opened as a 3.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 147.5 points.
New Mexico Lobos at Utah State Aggies Betting Prediction
The Lobos come in on a high note after topping the Colorado State Rams in their last contest, 80-65. The Lobos forced 23 turnovers, while the Rams had a free throw rate of 0.163 (below their season average of 0.259). Antino Jackson fueled New Mexico with 12 points and 11 assists.
In the Aggies’ last game, they edged the Fresno State Bulldogs, 65-62. Utah State’s 11.0 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Fresno State, who had a rate of 20.7. The Aggies’ mark was better than their season average of 16.8, while the Bulldogs’ was above their season average of 15.2. With 13 points and five rebounds, Dwayne Brown Jr. had a solid outing for Utah State.
The sharp-shooting offense of Utah State (99th in the nation with an effective field goal percentage 0.532) will face off against the mid-tier defense of New Mexico (289th in effective field goal percentage allowed 0.531). The Aggies should have the edge on that end of the court.
New Mexico heads into the contest with records of 11-11 straight up (SU) and 12-8 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Lobos games, with 10 unders compared to 9 overs.
Meanwhile, Utah State is 12-11 SU and 10-10 ATS. Games including the Aggies tend to go under the projected point total (55.0 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Anthony Mathis (16.2 points) has been stellar for the Lobos while Koby McEwen (13.8 points, 8.2 rebounds and 3.2 assists) has contributed greatly to the Aggies.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Lobos won the most recent game 74-61. The Lobos made 17 of their 17 free throws (100.0 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (14.0 vs. 17.0).
New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies Free Pick
Basketball Prediction: SU Winner – Utah State, ATS Winner – Utah State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Mexico is 4-5 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 4 overs.
At home, Utah State is 4-5 ATS with 6 overs and 3 unders.
New Mexico averages 30.6 three pointers per game, which ranks third in the nation. Utah State ranks 126th in three pointers allowed per game (21.5).
The Lobos rank 44th in assists per game (16.1) while the Aggies rank 141st (13.7).
Utah State ranks 135th in rebounds allowed per game (34.7) while New Mexico ranks 231st (37.6).
The Lobos average 7.4 steals per game, which ranks 51st in the NCAA. The Aggies rank 86th in steals allowed per game (6.0).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, New Mexico is 5-0 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Utah State is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Lobos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.6, up from 4.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aggies have scored an average of 67.4 points per game (5.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.0 points per game (1.2 below their season average).
