A high-scoring game should be expected when the Denver Nuggets (4-1) and the New Orleans Pelicans (4-1) clash at Pepsi Center. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, October 29, 2018.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
The Pelicans failed to cover as 6-point underdogs in their 132-111 loss to the Utah Jazz in their last matchup. The game’s total points (243) were well over the projected point total of 220. Utah made good use of their 37 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 30 of them (81.1 percent). New Orleans, meanwhile, was 22-29 (75.9 percent). Nikola Mirotic led New Orleans in scoring with 25 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
The last time the Nuggets played, they were beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers, 121-114, despite being 1-point favorites. The total points for the game (235) came in just over the O/U total of 234.5. Los Angeles’ turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Denver. The Lakers had a rate of 11.3 (worse than their season average of 9.8), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 15.9 (above their season average of 10.4). With 24 points on 9-for-17 shooting, Nikola Jokic was Denver’s leading scorer.
Denver should have an edge on the offensive glass in this showdown. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.7 percent), while New Orleans ranks 18th in defensive rebounding percentage (77.0 percent) since last season. Also, the Pelicans rank fourth in effective field goal percentage (0.540), while the Nuggets rank 26th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.537).
New Orleans heads into the game with records of 4-1 straight up (SU) and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as three of their 5 games have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Unlike New Orleans, Nuggets games have typically gone under the total (60.0 percent).
The Nuggets won two out of three meetings against the Pelicans last season. In the most recent matchup, Denver won 117-111. Denver had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.9 vs. 15.9). New Orleans, meanwhile, did an excellent job of making free throws (10-14; 71.4 percent).
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Denver is 18-2 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while New Orleans is 13-2.
The Pelicans are 53-26 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 43-27.
Denver ranks second in second chance points per game (14.2) while New Orleans ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (13.5).
The Nuggets rank first in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Pelicans rank 25th (45.5).
New Orleans averages 53.3 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the league. Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.4).
The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (26.8) while the Nuggets rank 26th in assists allowed per game (24.7).
Denver ranks eighth in fast break points per game (13.7) while New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.6).
The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.7) while the Pelicans rank 27th in three pointers allowed per game (30.8).
Denver ranks ninth in points off turnovers per game (16.9) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.3).
The Pelicans average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 20th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
New Orleans ranks third in blocks per game (5.9) while Denver ranks 14th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
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