The Denver Nuggets (15-13) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (15-14) to Pepsi Center as they try to extend their seven-game home winning streak. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, December 15, 2017, and will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Pelicans come in on a high note after topping the Milwaukee Bucks in their last matchup, 115-108. New Orleans’ effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Milwaukee. The Pelicans had a rate of 0.644 (above their season average of 0.554), while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.505. New Orleans received a boost from Anthony Davis, who finished with 25 points and 10 rebounds.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they lost to the Boston Celtics, 124-118. Boston’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Celtics had a rate of 0.665 (above their season average of 0.515), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.544. With 36 points on 16-for-25 shooting, Gary Harris was the top scorer from either team.
The prolific offense of Denver will clash against the mid-tier defense of New Orleans. The Nuggets rank eighth in offensive efficiency, while the Pelicans are 26th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball.
New Orleans heads into the contest with records of 15-14 straight up (SU) and 17-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to place the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 18 of their 29 games have gone over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 15-13 SU and 11-16-1 ATS. Unlike New Orleans, a little over half of Nuggets games have finished under the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jrue Holiday (29.2 points, 5.2 assists and 1.6 steals) has been great for the Pelicans while Harris (17.2 points, 4.0 assists and 1.8 steals) has made solid contributions to the Nuggets.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Pelicans won the most recent matchup 123-114, covering as 6-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 237 points, which was 15 points above the projected point total of 222 points. The Pelicans had a better free throw rate (0.221 vs. 0.170) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.8 vs. 20.8). DeMarcus Cousins put up a double-double in the victory with 40 points and 22 rebounds.
New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 9-5 ATS on the road with 8 overs and 6 unders.
Denver is 7-5 ATS at home with 7 unders and 5 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, New Orleans is 4-0 and Denver is 7-1.
The Nuggets are 13-8 when they reach 100 points, while the Pelicans are 13-9.
Denver ranks fourth in fast break points per game (14.8) while New Orleans ranks 28th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
The Pelicans rank second in points in the paint per game (51.0) while the Nuggets rank 25th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.6).
New Orleans averages 26.7 assists per game, which ranks second in the NBA. Denver ranks 23rd in assists allowed per game (24.3).
The Nuggets rank first in second chance points per game (15.6) while the Pelicans rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (13.3).
New Orleans ranks 16th in points off turnovers per game (16.8) while Denver ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (20.5).
The Nuggets rank 16th in steals per game (7.9) while the Pelicans rank 29th in steals allowed per game (9.1).
Denver ranks 11th in three pointers attempted per game (30.1) while New Orleans ranks 24th in three pointers allowed per game (31.2).
The Nuggets rank seventh in rebounds per game (45.0) while the Pelicans rank 17th in rebounds allowed per game (43.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pelicans have outscored opponents by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. For the season, New Orleans has lost by an average of 0.7 points.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 110.8 points per game (3.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 109.2 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
