The New Orleans Pelicans (37-26) put their nine-game winning streak on the line when they meet the Sacramento Kings (20-44) at Golden 1 Center. The game starts at 10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 7, 2018, and will air on NBC Sports – California.
New Orleans is a 5.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 224 points.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings Free Prediction
The Pelicans come in on a high note after defeating the Los Angeles Clippers in their last matchup, 121-116. New Orleans’ 6.7 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Los Angeles, who had a mark of 10.6. The Pelicans’ mark was better than their season average of 13.2. With 41 points on 17-for-31 shooting, Anthony Davis was the game’s leading scorer.
The last time the Kings played, they edged the New York Knicks, 102-99. Sacramento’s turnover percentage was their biggest advantage over New York. The Kings had a rate of 10.8 (better than their season average of 12.7), while the Knicks posted a mark of 11.9. Bogdan Bogdanovic led Sacramento in scoring with 22 points on 7-for-11 shooting.
Sacramento may have trouble getting to the free throw line in this contest. The Kings rank 30th in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.144, while New Orleans ranks eighth in FTA rate allowed (0.182). It will also be a battle of opposite styles as the up-and-down Pelicans rank second in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Kings rank 25th.
New Orleans holds records of 37-26 straight up (SU) and 34-28 against the spread (ATS). Games including the Pelicans have typically finished over the total (62.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Sacramento is 20-44 SU and 29-32-3 ATS. Of the Kings’ 64 games, 35 have finished over the O/U total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Davis (34.8 points, 15.2 rebounds, 3.0 blocks and 2.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Pelicans while Bogdanovic (16.8 points and 3.4 assists) has contributed greatly to the Kings.
The Kings have won two out of three against the Pelicans this season, including an 11-point victory in their last matchup. Sacramento covered as a 10-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 217 points, which was just 1 points above the projected point total of 216 points. Sacramento out-rebounded New Orleans. The Kings had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. two), defensive rebounds (35 vs. 34) and total rebounds (49 vs. 36). Davis finished with 23 points and 13 rebounds.
New Orleans Pelicans at Sacramento Kings Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 21-12 ATS on the road with 17 overs and 16 unders.
At home, Sacramento is 14-17 ATS with 18 overs and 13 unders.
In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, New Orleans is 8-1 and Sacramento is 12-5.
The Pelicans are 35-18 when they reach 100 points, while the Kings are 15-17.
New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (26.6) while Sacramento ranks 27th (21.3).
The Pelicans rank third in blocks per game (5.6) while the Kings rank 25th (4.1).
Sacramento ranks sixth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.4) while New Orleans ranks 26th (47.7).
The Kings rank 11th in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while the Pelicans rank 28th (13.5).
New Orleans ranks 13th in rebounds per game (44.0) while Sacramento ranks 29th (40.4).
The Pelicans average 14.1 fast break points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Kings rank 21st in fast break points allowed per game (12.5).
Sacramento averages 8.3 steals per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 21st in steals allowed per game (8.3).
The Pelicans average 29.2 three pointers per game, which ranks 15th in the NBA. The Kings rank 29th in three pointers allowed per game (31.9).
Sacramento ranks 22nd in points off turnovers per game (15.4) while New Orleans ranks 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 4-1 ATS with 5 overs.
Sacramento is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.6, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Kings have scored an average of 101.6 points per game (2.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.4 points per game (1.4 above their season average).
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