The Golden State Warriors (57-22) and New Orleans Pelicans (45-34) start Western Conference play at ORACLE Arena. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, April 7, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – New Orleans.
Golden State is a 7-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 224 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors ATS Prediction
The last time the Pelicans played, they blew out the Phoenix Suns, 122-103. New Orleans made 16 of their 38 three pointers (42.1 percent), while Phoenix was 9-33 (27.3 percent). New Orleans was lifted by Anthony Davis, who was the top scorer from either team with 33 points on 11-for-23 shooting.
The Warriors lost big to the Indiana Pacers in their last matchup, 126-106. Indiana’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Golden State. The Pacers had a rate of 10.8 (better than their season average of 12.0), while the Warriors posted a mark of 14.6. With 27 points on 8-for-23 shooting, Kevin Durant led Golden State in scoring.
The prolific offense of Golden State will go head-to-head against the mid-tier defense of New Orleans. The Warriors rank second in offensive efficiency, while the Pelicans are 14th in defensive efficiency. The Warriors figure to have the advantage on that side of the ball.
New Orleans comes into the game with records of 45-34 straight up (SU) and 41-36-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Pelicans’ 78 games with betting action, 45 have finished over the total.
Golden State is 57-22 SU, but they have trouble covering the spread (32-44-3 ATS). Contrary to New Orleans, games including the Warriors have a slight tendency to go under the projected point total (50.6 percent).
Quinn Cook has averaged 16.4 points and 5.0 assists over the last five games for Golden State.
The Warriors have emerged victorious in all three contests against the Pelicans this year, including a 125-115 victory the last time these teams met. Golden State covered as a 9-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 240 points, which was 11.5 points above the projected point total of 228.5 points. The Warriors knocked down 19 of their 27 free throws (70.4 percent) and had a better turnover percentage (13.9 vs. 17.7). Stephen Curry recorded a double-double with 31 points and 11 assists.
New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors Free Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 23-15 ATS on the road with 20 unders and 18 overs.
At home, Golden State is 15-23-2 ATS with 21 unders and 19 overs.
When allowing under 100 points, Golden State is 15-5 and New Orleans is 11-2.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Warriors are 54-14 and the Pelicans are 42-22.
Golden State ranks first in fast break points per game (19.6) while New Orleans ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
The Pelicans rank 10th in steals per game (7.8) while the Warriors rank 29th in steals allowed per game (8.7).
New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (51.8) while Golden State ranks 21st in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
The Warriors average 29.5 assists per game, which ranks first in the league. The Pelicans rank 19th in assists allowed per game (23.6).
Golden State averages 17.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. New Orleans ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.4).
The Warriors rank 13th in three pointers allowed per game (29.1) while the Pelicans rank 27th (30.8).
New Orleans averages 12.1 second chance points per game, which ranks 16th in the NBA. Golden State ranks last in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
The Warriors rank 17th in rebounds per game (43.6) while the Pelicans rank 23rd in rebounds allowed per game (45.4).
Golden State allows the fewest blocks per game (3.6) while New Orleans ranks fourth (4.3).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 110.6 points per game (3.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.4 points per game (3.2 above their season average).
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