It will be a battle between two of the NBA’s top scorers when Anthony Davis (24.6 PPG) and the Pelicans (37-33) welcome James Harden (27.2 PPG) and the Houston Rockets (47-23) to the Smoothie King Center. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Mar. 25 and will air on ROOT-SW and FSN-NO.
The Pelicans were beaten by the Clippers 107-100 on Sunday. Davis recorded 26 points and 12 rebounds, earning his 37th double-double of the year. The Rockets, meanwhile, are coming off a 110-100 win over the Pacers on Monday. Harden led the game in scoring with 44 points on 10-for-21 shooting.
New Orleans could own the offensive glass in this matchup, as they rank fourth in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage at 27.4%. Conversely, the Rockets are 27th in the league on the defensive backboards with a defensive rebound percentage of 72.9%. It will also be a tale of two tempos, as the up-tempo Rockets are ranked third in possessions per game, with the slow-paced Pelicans at 27th.
The Pelicans have won both contests against the Rockets this season, including a 111-83 blowout in their last matchup. Ryan Anderson scored a game-high 22 points.
The odds are even for this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment. The Pelicans look to build on their records of 37-33 Straight Up (SU) and 40-30 Against The Spread (ATS). They have gone 7-5 SU and 9-3 ATS against teams from their own division. The Pelicans have stifled opponents’ efforts from beyond the arc, allowing a three-point field goal percentage of only .333. An area where the Pelicans are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 6.1 blocks per game, third in the NBA. Expect New Orleans to have lots of opportunities at the line against the Rockets, who are one of the worst fouling teams in the league with an average of 22.1 fouls per game.
On the other side, Houston has a SU record of 47-23 and an ATS record of 41-29. In divisional games, Houston has gone 5-6 SU and ATS. The Rockets rank fourth in the league in road scoring, averaging 104.8 points per game. A large part of Houston’s game is creating turnovers and turning them into points. They are scoring 19.1 points per game off turnovers, which ranks third in the league.
Following the Pelicans’ latest win over Houston, New Orleans is still behind in the head-to-head record over the last 10 meetings, 4-6 SU. The Pelicans hold the advantage ATS with a record of 7-2-1. Houston has held the edge in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) twice over the last 10, while New Orleans accomplished this once.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, ATS Winner – HOU
Notes
Ranked 16th, New Orleans puts up 99.3 points per game. On the other hand, Houston allows 100.2 and also ranks 16th (in points allowed).
Houston ranks fourth in points allowed per road game (103.7 PPG), while New Orleans ranks 15th in points per home game with 101.8.
The New Orleans Pelicans have a winning record (25-12) when their opponents score fewer than 100 points this season. The Houston Rockets are 10-12 when they don’t hit triple digits.
The New Orleans Pelicans have a losing 12-21 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The Houston Rockets are 37-11 when they hit triple digits.
The Rockets have a defensive rating of 100.1, fourth-best in the NBA. The Pelicans also rank in the top half of the league for their offensive rating of 104.8 (ranked ninth).
New Orleans averages fewer possessions per game than Houston, with 94.7 compared to 100.1. However, the Pelicans score an average of 1.048 points per possession, more than the 1.033 that the Rockets score.
The Houston Rockets have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking seventh in the league with an EFF% of 50.8%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the New Orleans Pelicans have a poor 9-21 record.
On average, the Houston Rockets make 22.1 assists per game and the New Orleans Pelicans make 21.9. Houston is ranked ninth, while New Orleans is ranked 10th.
With 6.1 blocks per game, the New Orleans Pelicans rank third in the league. The Houston Rockets are in the top half of NBA teams for blocking, ranking 13th with 4.7 blocks per game.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank 10th in offensive rebounding, while the Houston Rockets rank 21st in defensive rebounding.
Houston averages 9.5 steals per game (ranked third). New Orleans is 8-12 when allowing at least 9 steals.
