The Miami Heat (17-15) square off with the New Orleans Pelicans (16-16) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – New Orleans at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 23, 2017.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Pelicans’ last contest, they defeated the Orlando Magic, 111-97. New Orleans’ 26.8 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over Orlando, who had a rate of 21.3. The Pelicans’ mark was above their season average of 20.3. With 26 points on 9-for-16 shooting, DeMarcus Cousins was the top scorer from either team.
The Heat defeated the Dallas Mavericks in their last game, 113-101. Miami’s 0.750 effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 0.620. The Heat’s mark was above their season average of 0.524. With 24 points and five assists, Josh Richardson played well for Miami.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami figures to have a significant advantage. The elite Heat offense ranks eighth in the league in that metric at 0.530, while the New Orleans defense is ranked 23rd in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.529). This game should be a matchup of opposite paces. The fast-paced Pelicans rank fifth in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Heat rank 28th.
New Orleans heads into the contest with records of 16-16 straight up (SU) and 17-14 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 20 of their 31 games have ended over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 17-15 SU and 12-17-2 ATS. Contrary to New Orleans, Heat games have a tendency to go under the O/U total (61.3 percent).
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Jrue Holiday (25.0 points, 5.8 assists, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 steals) has been stellar for the Pelicans while Richardson (19.0 points, 2.0 steals and 1.2 blocks) has made great contributions to the Heat.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Heat won the most recent contest 120-112. The Heat’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Pelicans. Miami had a rate of 28.6, while New Orleans posted a mark of 19.5.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Pelicans, ATS Winner – Pelicans, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, New Orleans is 9-7 ATS with 10 overs and 6 unders.
Miami is 2-9-2 ATS at home with 7 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
New Orleans is 5-0 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 12-3.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Pelicans are 14-11 and the Heat are 12-6.
New Orleans ranks second in points in the paint per game (50.6) while Miami ranks 27th (39.9).
The Heat rank third in fast break points allowed per game (8.8) while the Pelicans rank 28th (14.3).
Miami ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (25.4) while New Orleans ranks 24th (31.2).
The Pelicans rank third in assists per game (26.3) while the Heat rank 23rd (21.2).
New Orleans ranks 12th in second chance points per game (12.2) while Miami ranks 29th (9.0).
The Heat rank 13th in steals allowed per game (7.8) while the Pelicans rank 29th (9.1).
Miami ranks 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.0) while New Orleans ranks 26th (19.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 3-2 ATS with 5 overs.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Pelicans’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 0.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 100.2 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 96.6 points per game (5.2 below their season average).
