The Miami Heat (7-13) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (11-11) to AmericanAirlines Arena as they attempt to end their six-game home losing streak. The game will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018.
New Orleans is a 3-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 229.5 points.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The Pelicans will be hoping for a similar outcome after comfortably covering the 5.5-point spread against the Washington Wizards in their last contest, 125-104. The game’s total points (229) were under the O/U total of 241. The Pelicans knocked down 22 of their 28 free throws (78.6 percent) and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 39.5 (above their season average of 26.7). New Orleans was lifted by Anthony Davis, who had 28 points and 15 rebounds.
The last time the Heat were in action, they dropped a tough one to the Atlanta Hawks, 115-113, despite being 8-point favorites. The game’s combined points (228) came in over the projected point total of 223.5. Atlanta made good use of their 32 trips to the free throw line, converting on 27 of them (84.4 percent). Miami, on the other hand, was just 20-30 (66.7 percent). With 22 points on 6-for-17 shooting, Josh Richardson was the top scorer from either team.
New Orleans appears to have the edge on the offensive side of the ball. The Pelicans rank fifth in offensive efficiency, while Miami ranks 15th in defensive efficiency.
New Orleans comes into the game with records of 11-11 straight up (SU) and 10-12 against the spread (ATS). Pelicans games tend to finish over the total (59.1 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 7-13 SU and 8-12 ATS. Much like New Orleans, Heat games also have typically gone over the O/U total (65.0 percent).
Julius Randle has averaged 20 points,10.8 rebounds,4.8 assists over the last five games for New Orleans.
After the Pelicans won both contests against the Heat last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent contest, New Orleans won 124-123. One of New Orleans’ largest advantages was their ability to convert at the free throw line. They were 20-24 (83.3 percent), while the Heat were just 17-26 (65.4 percent).
Pelicans vs. Heat ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, New Orleans is 4-7 ATS with 7 overs and 4 unders.
Miami is 3-8 ATS at home with 7 overs and 4 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Miami is 3-1 and New Orleans is 2-0.
The Heat are 6-10 when they reach 100 points, while the Pelicans are 11-10.
New Orleans ranks first in second chance points per game (17.7) while Miami ranks 29th in second chance points allowed per game (16.5).
The Pelicans rank fourth in assists per game (26.6) while the Heat rank 24th (22.0).
New Orleans ranks first in points in the paint per game (58.3) while Miami ranks 18th (46.7).
The Heat average 6.5 blocks per game, which ranks second in the league. The Pelicans rank 17th in blocks allowed per game (5.3).
New Orleans ranks third in rebounds per game (48.6) while Miami ranks 18th in rebounds allowed per game (45.9).
The Pelicans rank 13 in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.90909090909091) while the Heat rank 27 (19.4).
Miami ranks 12 in fast break points allowed per game (13.05) while New Orleans ranks 25 (15.590909090909092).
The Heat average 33.4 three pointers per game, which ranks 10 in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 22 in three pointers allowed per game (33.04545454545455).
Miami averages 7.35 steals per game, which ranks 18 in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 24 in steals allowed per game (9.136363636363637).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five outings, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Pelicans have been outscored by an average of 2.4 points in their last five games. For the season, New Orleans has defeated opponents by an average of 1.5 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 104.0 points per game (4.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 110.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average).
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