The Oklahoma City Thunder (30-22) welcome the New Orleans Pelicans (27-23) to Chesapeake Energy Arena as they attempt to extend their five-game home winning streak. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, February 2, 2018, and will air on Fox SportsNet Oklahoma.
Oklahoma City opened as a 6.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 220 points.
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Prediction
The Pelicans are hoping for a better outcome after their 114-103 loss to the Sacramento Kings in their last matchup. Sacramento won the rebounding battle. The Kings had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. two), defensive rebounds (35 vs. 34) and total rebounds (49 vs. 36). Anthony Davis was New Orleans’ leading scorer with 23 points on 6-for-16 shooting.
The last time the Thunder played, they lost a tough one against the Denver Nuggets, 127-124. Denver’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Oklahoma City. The Nuggets had a rate of 22.5 (below their season average of 26.5), while the Thunder posted a mark of 20.9 (below their season average of 28.4). Oklahoma City’s Russell Westbrook finished with 20 points, 21 assists and nine rebounds in the game.
The prolific offense of Oklahoma City will clash against the mid-tier defense of New Orleans. The Thunder rank ninth in offensive efficiency, while the Pelicans are 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Thunder should have the edge on that side of the ball. Also, the Pelicans rank 24th in turnover percentage (14.9 percent), while the Thunder rank third in opponents’ turnover percentage (15.5 percent).
New Orleans comes into the contest with records of 27-23 straight up (SU) and 26-24 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to place the total low when the Pelicans are involved, as 30 of their 50 games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma City is 30-22 SU and 21-29-1 ATS. Unlike New Orleans, games featuring the Thunder have gone under the total 54.9 percent of the time.
Paul George has averaged 26.2 points and 2.2 steals over the last five games for Oklahoma City.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Davis scored a game-high 36 points and the Pelicans defeated the Thunder 114-107, covering as 2.5-point underdogs. He also put up 15 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 221 points, which was 8 points above the projected point total of 213 points. The Pelicans made 25 of their 32 free throws (78.1 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.556 vs. 0.489).
New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder ATS Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Thunder, ATS Winner – Thunder, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New Orleans is 15-10 ATS on the road with 13 unders and 12 overs.
Oklahoma City is 11-14-1 ATS at home with 14 unders and 12 overs.
New Orleans is 8-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Oklahoma City is 17-5.
In games where they reach the century mark, the Pelicans are 25-16 and the Thunder are 26-10.
Oklahoma City ranks first in steals per game (9.3) while New Orleans ranks 26th in steals allowed per game (8.5).
The Thunder average 14.9 second chance points per game, which ranks first in the NBA. The Pelicans rank 25th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
Oklahoma City averages 18.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks second in the NBA. New Orleans ranks 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.9).
The Thunder rank fourth in fast break points per game (14.3) while the Pelicans rank 27th in fast break points allowed per game (13.9).
New Orleans ranks second in assists per game (26.4) while Oklahoma City ranks 22nd (21.2).
The Thunder rank second in rebounds allowed per game (41.1) while the Pelicans rank 21st (44.0).
Oklahoma City ranks fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (41.8) while New Orleans ranks 22nd (46.2).
The Thunder average 29.1 three pointers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Pelicans rank 29th in three pointers allowed per game (31.3).
New Orleans ranks fifth in blocks allowed per game (4.1) while Oklahoma City ranks seventh (4.5).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, New Orleans is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Oklahoma City is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Pelicans have been outscored by an average of 1.8 points in their last five games. On the season, New Orleans has defeated opponents by an average of 0.0 points.
During their last five games, the Thunder have scored an average of 116.8 points per game (10.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 112.2 points per game (9.7 above their season average).
