The regular season comes to a close for the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints, who get together at Georgia Dome for an NFC South Week 17 showdown. Players to watch in this matchup are the NFL’s top receiver, Julio Jones (1,722 yards, 8 TDs), and third-leading passer, Drew Brees (4,547 yards, 31 TDs). It will begin Sunday, Jan 3 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.
New Orleans beat Atlanta 31-21 in a Week 6 meeting between these two teams. Devonta Freeman had a big game in the last game against the Saints, racking up 156 total yards and two TDs. He gave the defense problems as both a runner (100 yards) and receiver (56 yards). Benjamin Watson had a big performance for New Orleans, registering 10 catches for 127 yards and one TD.
Atlanta is a three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 52 points.
Heading into Week 17 of league action, the Falcons are 8-7 Straight Up (SU) and 6-9 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Falcons have records of 2-3 for both SU and ATS. They should have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game, as the Saints have the 28th-ranked scoring defense on the road. Their ineffective defense gives up an average of 29.4 points per away game. Look for Atlanta to take advantage of an inferior New Orleans pass defense, which ranks 31st in the league with 281.1 passing yards allowed per game. Turning to the Falcons defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Atlanta will have the advantage when facing the opposing run game. New Orleans averages 3.8 yards per carry, ranking 26th in the league. One of the keys to the game will be if the Saints can prevent giveaways against the Falcons, whose defense ranks fifth in the league with 1.9 turnovers per home game. If the game is close late, the Falcons may have an edge. New Orleans finishes games poorly, giving up a league-worst 9.7 points per game in the fourth quarter. Mistakes and a lack of focus could be factors that benefit the Falcons in this game. The Saints are one of the most penalized teams in the league with 8.4 flags per game.
As for their opponent, the Saints have 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS records this season. The Saints went 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. New Orleans has found a lot of success through the air. Its 310.3 passing yards per game tops the NFL. Shifting to the other side of the ball, the New Orleans defense can dominate if it takes advantage of some favorable matchups. The Saints could find weakness in the Falcons offense, who are one of the worst in the league with 0.8 fumbles lost per game. It looks like there are no pre-game jitters for the Saints, who average a league-best 7.6 points in the first quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl, ATS Winner – Atl, O/U – Under
Notes
Atlanta is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games.
Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home.
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing New Orleans.
Atlanta is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing New Orleans.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans.
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans.
New Orleans is 5-1 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Atlanta is 4-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
Atlanta is only 1-5) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 3-2 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Atlanta is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 17th-ranked rushing attack will face the 31st-ranked run defense of New Orleans, while its 15th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 23rd-ranked run game of the Saints.
