The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) host the New York Giants (4-4) at Raymond James Stadium this week. The NFL’s fourth-leading rusher, Doug Martin (612 yards, 3 TDs), will be on display in this matchup. While this season has been a bit of a letdown for Tampa Bay, the team has shown signs of life lately, notching wins in two of its last three. The game will begin Sunday, Nov 8 at 4:05 p.m. ET and can be seen on FOX.
Tampa Bay prevailed in a close one over the Falcons 23-20 last week. Kwon Alexander led the Tampa Bay defense in the win, registering six tackles and one interception. New York didn’t have the same success as Tampa Bay, barely losing to the Saints 52-49. Eli Manning had a big game throwing the ball for the Giants, completing 30 of 41 passes for 350 yards and six TDs. Odell Beckham Jr. had a big game as well, totaling 130 yards and three TDs on eight receptions.
New York is a slight two-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 47 points.
The Buccaneers enter the game with records of 3-4 Straight Up (SU) and 4-3 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. Over their last five games, the Buccaneers have records of 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS. They average 25 points per game and will look to capitalize against the New York defense. The Giants have the 26th-ranked road scoring defense in the NFL, giving up 29 points per game. The Buccaneers have the league’s fourth-ranked rushing offense with 131.3 yards per game. As for the Tampa Bay defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Giants may run into some problems against the Buccaneers home pass defense, which ranks fifth and gives up 188.7 passing yards per game in its own stadium. Based on an average time of possession of 32:47 per home game, which ranks fifth in the league, look for Tampa Bay to control the pace.
As for their opponent, the Giants have a record of 4-3-1 ATS and 4-4 SU. The Giants went 3-2 SU and 2-2-1 ATS over the last five games. They come into the game averaging 26.9 points per game, but those numbers might increase. The Buccaneers give up an average of 36.7 points at home, worst in the league. New York can plan on throwing the ball regularly. Offenses have picked apart the pass defense of the Buccaneers, which allows a completion percentage of 70.8%, 31st in the league. Switching gears to the New York defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. The Buccaneers will have to avoid mistakes against the turnover-minded Giants. The New York defense generates 2.2 turnovers per game, fourth in the league. The Giants could take advantage of Tampa Bay’s reputation as a slow starter on defense. The Buccaneers are 28th in the NFL in first-quarter points allowed with 5.9. Don’t be surprised to see lots of calls against the Buccaneers when they take the field. Tampa Bay is among the most penalized teams in the league, receiving an average of 10.3 penalties per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYG, ATS Winner – NYG, O/U – Under
Notes
Tampa Bay is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Tampa Bay’s last 17 games.
Tampa Bay is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games at home.
Tampa Bay is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home.
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay’s last 9 games when playing NY Giants.
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants.
Tampa Bay is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Giants.
New York is 4-2 SU when leading at the start of the fourth quarter this season. Tampa Bay is 3-1 SU when leading after three quarters.
New York has drawn an average of 8.1 penalties on opponents this season. Tampa Bay is an even 3-3 SU when penalized at least eight times in a game.
Tampa Bay is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its fourth-ranked rushing attack will face the 19th-ranked run defense of New York, while its 16th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 27th-ranked run game of the Giants.
