The New York Knicks (6-14) will have their hands full against the NBA’s top scoring defense when they challenge the Memphis Grizzlies (12-6) at FedExForum. The game starts at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207.5 points with Memphis set as an 8-point favorite.
New York Knicks vs. Memphis Grizzlies ATS Prediction
The last time the Knicks played, they defeated the New Orleans Pelicans, 114-109, as 7.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (223) came in under the O/U total of 235. New York’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over New Orleans. The Knicks had a rate of 7.2 (better than their season average of 12.7), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 10.3. Enes Kanter played well for New York, contributing 17 points and 12 rebounds.
The Grizzlies fell to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game, 112-107. They were unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (219) finished over the O/U total of 210. Los Angeles was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Clippers made 24 of their 27 free throws (88.9 percent), while the Grizzlies were 14-18 (77.8 percent). With 27 points on 11-for-19 shooting, Marc Gasol was the top scorer from either team.
The physical Memphis offense might be getting to the foul line a lot in this battle. The Grizzlies currently rank sixth in the NBA with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.222, while New York is among the league’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 21st-ranked FTA rate of 0.213). Additionally, the Knicks rank 22nd in offensive efficiency (105.4), while the Grizzlies rank third in defensive efficiency (102.2).
Although New York struggles winning games straight up (6-14 SU), they are 11-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers have a tendency to place the total low when the Knicks are playing, as 55.0 percent of their contests have gone over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Memphis is 12-6 SU and 12-6 ATS. Unlike New York, games featuring the Grizzlies tend to go under the projected point total (55.6 percent).
Gasol and Mike Conley have played well over the last five games for Memphis. Gasol has averaged 22 points,11.4 rebounds,1.6 blocks,1.2 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Conley has recorded 24 points,6.8 assists a game during that span.
After splitting two games last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. The Grizzlies won the last contest 105-99. The Grizzlies had a better turnover percentage (10.0 vs. 13.2) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.505 vs. 0.470).
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Grizzlies, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
New York is 6-5 ATS on the road with 7 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Memphis is 7-1 ATS with 4 overs and 4 unders.
New York is 1-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Memphis is 6-2.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Knicks are 6-11 and the Grizzlies are 9-3.
New York ranks fourth in second chance points per game (16.0) while Memphis ranks 28th (9.2).
The Grizzlies rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.9) while the Knicks rank 25th (51.4).
New York ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (11.1) while Memphis ranks 25th (15.6).
The Grizzlies rank seventh in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while the Knicks rank 26th (6.3).
Memphis ranks seventh in assists allowed per game (23.0) while New York ranks 25th (24.9).
The Grizzlies rank 5 in points off turnovers per game (19.944444444444443) while the Knicks rank 20 (16.4).
Memphis ranks 3 in steals per game (9.166666666666666) while New York ranks 16 (7.6).
The Knicks rank 15 in rebounds per game (45.35) while the Grizzlies rank 28 (39.44444444444444).
New York ranks 21 in three pointers attempted per game (29.2) while Memphis ranks 25 (27.555555555555557).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, New York is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Memphis is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Knicks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.0, down from 5.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 104.2 points per game (0.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 98.8 points per game (2.0 below their season average).
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