The Miami Heat (1-2) meet the New York Knicks (1-3) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports – Seattle at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, October 24, 2018.
Miami is an 8-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 224 points.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
Although the Knicks were topped by the Milwaukee Bucks in their last matchup, 124-113, they were able to cover as 11.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (237) finished over the projected point total of 227. Milwaukee out-rebounded New York. The Bucks had 19 offensive rebounds and 55 total rebounds, while the Knicks had 11 and 43, respectively. New York’s Enes Kanter had a solid outing, contributing 14 points and 13 rebounds.
In the Heat’s last game, they lost a close one to the Charlotte Hornets, 113-112, despite being 3.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (225) finished over the O/U total of 220. Charlotte’s 9.6 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Miami, who had a mark of 12.9. With 19 points and 10 rebounds, Miami’s Rodney McGruder put together a good performance.
Miami figures to have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. Since the 2017-18 season, the Heat rank sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while New York is 24th in effective field goal percentage (0.509).
The Knicks are 30-56 straight up (SU) and 46-40 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Just over half of New York games have finished under the O/U total since last season.
Meanwhile, the Heat, are 45-40 SU and 50-35 ATS since last season. Vegas has been fairly accurate when setting the O/U total of Miami games over that same time frame with 45 unders compared to 40 overs.
These two teams split four games last season. In the last matchup, the Knicks won 122-98. The Knicks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (20.5 vs. 14.3) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.607 vs. 0.438).
New York Knicks at Miami Heat Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Miami is 27-6 and New York is 15-4.
The Heat are 34-23 when they score more than 100 points, while the Knicks are 29-33.
Miami ranks 10th in three pointers attempted per game (30.5) while New York ranks 29th (23.7).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Knicks rank 22nd (23.9).
Miami ranks 19th in steals per game (7.5) while New York ranks 27th (6.8).
The Heat average 16.5 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. The Knicks rank 20th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.1).
Miami averages 5.4 blocks per game, which ranks fifth in the league. New York ranks 11th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
The Knicks average 13.3 second chance points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 13th in second chance points allowed per game (12.2).
New York averages 44.0 rebounds per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Miami ranks 16th in rebounds allowed per game (43.5).
The Heat are 27th in the NBA with 9.6 fast break points per game while the Knicks are 29th with 8.7 fast break points per game.
*****
