The Knicks have played more than two-thirds of their games at home and this helped them be on par with their next opponent, the Indiana Pacers. They’ve also beaten them in the first encounter, but this time, on Monday, the game will be played in Indianapolis, and in order to be taken seriously, the Knicks have to show that they can compete on the road.
Knicks at Pacers
Spread: Indiana Pacers -9 (-110) at BetDSI Sportsbook
Total: over/under 210.5 points (-110)
The Knicks respond after three losses
It’s going to be a quick turnaround for the New York Knicks, who play the Orlando Magic in Madison Square Arena on Sunday afternoon, and will have to catch a late flight for the second night of a back-to-back with the Pacers. Fortunately, they enter this set after a convincing win over the Miami Heat 115-86, but also with Porzingis battling a sprained foot and the flu.
The game against the Heat was already reviewed in my yesterday’s article on the Knicks, so let’s focus on the stats instead. Prior to the game against Orlando, the Knicks are holding the eighth and the final playoff spot with one game over .500. They’ve beaten the expectations, making the best of an early schedule. They score 104.5 points per game and allow 103.8 points to their opponents. Neither number stands out really, but it still a small sample and those averages are highly affected by an overly large number of blowouts. It would have been even more such games if not for the Knicks ability and luck to come behind down 20 or more, as they did a number of time already. Freed from an obsolete triangle offense, and a ball hog Anthony, the Knicks are shooting the ball very well this year – 47 percent of field goals and 79.5 percent on free throws, with both figures good enough for the seventh best in the NBA. Of course, these averages are also influenced by the fact that they played so many games in MSG, where they are much more confident and accurate. Still, their best improvement comes on the defensive side. New York has allowed just 43.8 percent shooting to their opposition, third best in the NBA. Porzingis leads the team in many statistical categories, including scoring (25.8 ppg), rim protection (2.1 bpg), field goal and free throw attempts. Wings Hardaway and Lee have provided some solid outside shooting, Kanter does his thing on the block, and it’s all orchestrated by a veteran Jarrett Jack.
Porzingis is likely heading to game-time decision, but even if he plays against Orlando, it’s not certain that he’d be cleared to play the next day as well. The Knicks have previously rested their key guys when they felt they don’t have much chance of winning.
Place: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Date/Time: Monday, December 4th, 2017. 7:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: Fox Sports Indiana, MSG
The Pacers come close, but short in Toronto
Losing their second straight game against a quality road opponent, the Pacers dropped a 120-115 decision and fell to 12-11 on the season. The Pacers wasted another standout performance from guard Victor Oladipo, who carried Indiana with a season-high 36 points on 14-of-22 shooting from the field. Oladipo kept the Pacers in the game, but while Oladipo was lighting it up, the Raptors picked apart Indiana’s defense. McMillan has trusted Bogdanovic to defend bigger wings and the Croatian wing has significantly improved his defense, but he couldn’t get it done on Friday against DeRozan. But it was not on Bogdanovic-DeRozan pairing, the entire Toronto team seemed to have their ways against the Pacers. Indiana has given up at least 109 points in its last three games, but it was more a result of a quick pace. In this game, the Pacers gave up too many layups, too many uncontested jumpers, too many points in transition. The Raptors had 70 points in the paint, compared to 44 for the Pacers and guys like Jacob Poeltl light them up for career bests. It was questionable whether Turner would play, but he had a solid game of offense with 17 points and six rebounds in 34 minutes of action. He was not much of a defensive anchor though, so perhaps he felt a little discomfort. Collison was lively, scoring 16, and Stephenson chimed in with 11 points. The Pacers shot 44.1 percent due to faulty long-range snipers – they were just 8-of-26 from the 3-point line. They trailed by 14 points in the 4 quarter but managed to pull within five on few occasions, but couldn’t get any closer.
The Pacers will enjoy two weeks without having to catch a plane as they play next 6 games in Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Still, with four games against Eastern conference opponents, it’s an important stretch, and it’s good that the Pacers are entering it in good health.
New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers Game Trends & Prediction
Not counting the game played tonight, the Knicks have gone 13-8 against the spread, but all the success comes from home games. When on the road, they covered just twice in seven tries (and quite early in at least four of them). The reason for the bad outings lies partially in the fact that they haven’t been able to score. It also resulted in 2-5 over/under record in away games, while they showed no signs of the under trend overall (9-12). Not only have the Knicks had troubles on the road, but they’ve also had very few successful visits to Indy – they are 2-9 ATS in the last 11 meetings with the Pacers in Indiana.
The Pacers failed to cover the spread just three times in their last 10 games, twice to Houston. On the other hand, they were favored in just two of those games, so we’ll have to see how they respond to the pressure of having to win a game. They are 14-9 against the spread this season, with an equal level of success no matter where they play. They are hard to pick on the total points market, alternating overs and unders the entire way. The Pacers are 12-11 on the O/U, and 4-6 at home.
Admi-Rank: The Pacers have established themselves as an average NBA team, which is higher than people expected them to go. The Knicks are also surging towards such heights, but are slowed down by the lesser road results. Their stocks could be quickly reversing their price is they prove to be just a team hard to beat in their own house.
In the first meeting between the two sides about a month ago, the Pacers led throughout the game and appeared to be in full control, until the Knicks surged in the fourth, outscoring them 34-11 in the last ten minutes on the game to take a 108-101 win. Porzingis went berserk with 40 points – he couldn’t miss, and Kanter had 18 rebounds, so the Pacers will have to try and match the Knicks big guys. It’s obvious that they would have a much easier job if the Latvian Unicorn is not playing, which is probably the case for tonights game.
I would take the Pacers to cover the spread in case Porzingis sits out this game.
My Pick: Indiana Pacers -9 (-110)
Total: Pass
