The Miami Heat (38-33) welcome the New York Knicks (26-45) to AmericanAirlines Arena as they try to extend their five-game home winning streak. The game can be seen on MSG Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 21, 2018.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Betting Prediction
The Knicks come in on a high note after blowing out the Chicago Bulls in their last outing, 110-92. New York’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Chicago. The Knicks had a rate of 0.505 (below their season average of 0.510), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.375 (below their season average of 0.501). Enes Kanter had a good game for New York, putting up 10 points and 13 rebounds.
In the Heat’s last matchup, they defeated the Denver Nuggets, 149-141. Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Denver. The Heat had a rate of 0.647 (above their season average of 0.519), while the Nuggets posted a mark of 0.550. James Johnson led Miami in scoring with 31 points on 13-for-17 shooting.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami figures to have a considerable edge. The Heat defense ranks eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.511), while the New York offense is ranked 22nd in effective field goal percentage (0.510). Moreover, the Knicks, who rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (24.5 percent), will face a tough test against the Heat, who rank fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.3 percent).
New York heads into the game with records of 26-45 straight up (SU) and 33-38 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Knicks games, with 36 overs compared to 34 unders.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 38-33 SU and 37-31-3 ATS. Contrary to New York, Heat games have finished under the total 50.7 percent of the time.
Kelly Olynyk has averaged 12.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.2 blocks over the last five games for Miami.
Both teams have won a game in the season series. The Heat won the most recent matchup 107-103, but did not cover as 7-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 210 points, which was 7.5 points above the projected point total of 202.5 points. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (32.6 vs. 21.6). New York, meanwhile, did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (20-23; 87.0 percent). In the loss, Michael Beasley had a double-double with 20 points and 10 rebounds.
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat Betting Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
New York is 14-22 ATS on the road with 19 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
Miami is 14-18-2 ATS at home with 17 unders, 16 overs and 1 push.
New York is 12-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 22-6.
When scoring over 100 points, the Knicks are 25-24 and the Heat are 27-16.
Miami ranks seventh in three pointers attempted per game (30.8) while New York ranks 29th (22.5).
The Knicks rank sixth in second chance points per game (13.6) while the Heat rank 25th (11.0).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.7) while New York ranks 18th (23.7).
The Heat rank 18th in steals per game (7.5) while the Knicks rank 26th (6.8).
New York ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.3) while Miami ranks 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
The Knicks rank seventh in points in the paint per game (46.8) while the Heat rank 11th in points allowed in the paint per game (43.4).
Miami ranks 20th in points off turnovers per game (16.2) while New York ranks 22nd in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.5).
The Heat rank 28th in fast break points per game (8.6) while the Knicks rank 29th (8.2).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New York is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Knicks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 3.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 117.6 points per game (14.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.4 points per game (11.4 above their season average).
*****
