The Miami Heat (20-17) go head-to-head against the New York Knicks (18-20) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Sun at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 5, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 201 points with Miami opening as a 5-point favorite.
New York Knicks at Miami Heat Free Prediction
The Knicks are hoping for a better outcome after their 121-103 loss to the Washington Wizards in their last outing. Washington’s 0.648 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over New York, who had a mark of 0.517. The Wizards’ mark was above their season average of 0.516. Michael Beasley was New York’s leading scorer with 20 points on 8-for-14 shooting.
The last time the Heat played, they defeated the Detroit Pistons, 111-104. Miami’s 18.9 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Detroit, who had a rate of 12.8. The Heat’s mark was below their season average of 19.5, while the Pistons’ was below their season average of 23.8. Kelly Olynyk was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 11-for-15 shooting.
New York heads into the contest with records of 18-20 straight up (SU) and 20-18 against the spread (ATS). Of the Knicks’ 38 games, 20 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 20-17 SU and 16-19-2 ATS. Of the Heat’s 37 games, 22 have finished under the O/U total.
Josh Richardson and Goran Dragic have played at a high level over the last five games for Miami. Richardson has averaged 17.2 points, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. Not to be outdone, Dragic has put up 14.6 points, 4.6 assists and 1.4 steals a game during that span.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Enes Kanter scored a game-high 22 points and the Knicks beat the Heat 115-86, covering as 1.5-point favorites. He also recorded 14 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 201 points, which was 6 points below the projected point total of 207 points. The Knicks knocked down 22 of their 26 free throws (84.6 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (26.7 vs. 17.0).
New York Knicks at Miami Heat Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Knicks, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, New York is 5-11 ATS with 8 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 5-11-2 ATS at home with 10 unders, 7 overs and 1 push.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Miami is 13-3 and New York is 8-1.
In games where they score more than 100 points, the Heat are 15-6 and the Knicks are 17-9.
New York ranks second in second chance points per game (14.8) while Miami ranks last (9.5).
The Heat rank first in three pointers allowed per game (25.2) while the Knicks rank 28th (31.2).
New York ranks ninth in points in the paint per game (46.7) while Miami ranks 26th (40.5).
The Heat rank fourth in assists allowed per game (20.7) while the Knicks rank 15th (22.6).
Miami ranks fourth in fast break points allowed per game (9.4) while New York ranks 12th (10.6).
The Knicks rank fourth in rebounds allowed per game (41.3) while the Heat rank 11th (42.1).
Miami ranks 12th in blocks per game (4.8) while New York ranks 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
The Heat average 7.4 steals per game, which ranks 19th in the league. The Knicks rank 22nd in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Miami ranks 22nd in points off turnovers per game (15.4) while New York ranks 24th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, New York is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Knicks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.4, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.2 points per game (2.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.8 points per game (2.6 above their season average).
