The Milwaukee Bucks (2-0) take on the New York Knicks (1-2) at Fiserv Forum. The game will air on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, October 22, 2018.
Milwaukee is an 11-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 223 points.
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks ATS Prediction
Although the Knicks were defeated by the Boston Celtics in their last matchup, 103-101, they did cover as 9.5-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (204) came in under the O/U total of 210.5. Boston was effective at getting to and converting from the charity stripe. The Celtics made 28 of their 33 free throws (84.8 percent), while the Knicks were just 17-27 (63.0 percent). Enes Kanter played well for New York, contributing 17 points and 15 rebounds.
In the Bucks’ last game, they beat the Indiana Pacers, 118-101, comfortably covering as 3.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (219) finished just over the O/U total of 217. The Bucks had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.6 vs. 18.8) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.565 vs. 0.471). Giannis Antetokounmpo was the game’s leading scorer with 26 points on 12-for-23 shooting.
The aggressive Milwaukee offense might be living from the charity stripe in this battle. The Bucks rank fifth in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.216, while New York ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.210) since the 2017-18 season. Ball security could be troublesome for the Knicks. They rank 21st at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 14.1 percent), while the Bucks have forced the third-most turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 14.7 percent).
The Knicks have had records of 30-55 straight up (SU) and 45-40 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games including New York have had a slight tendency to go under the projected point total since last season (52.9 percent).
On the other hand, the Bucks, are 46-38 SU and 40-50 ATS since last season. Games featuring Milwaukee have had a slight tendency to go over the projected point total over that same stretch (52.2 percent).
The Bucks won all four meetings against the Knicks last season. In the last contest, Milwaukee won 115-102. The Bucks knocked down 15 of their 17 free throws (88.2 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.538 vs. 0.479).
New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Knicks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When holding opponents under 100 points, Milwaukee is 19-6 and New York is 15-4.
The Bucks are 42-22 when they reach the century mark, while the Knicks are 29-32.
Milwaukee ranks third in steals per game (8.6) while New York ranks 27th (6.8).
The Knicks rank seventh in second chance points per game (13.3) while the Bucks rank last (10.3).
Milwaukee ranks sixth in fast break points per game (14.6) while New York ranks 29th (8.7).
The Bucks rank third in points off turnovers per game (18.0) while the Knicks rank 24th (15.4).
New York ranks 13th in rebounds per game (44.0) while Milwaukee ranks last (40.0).
The Knicks average 46.6 points in the paint per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. The Bucks rank 22nd in points allowed in the paint per game (47.0).
Milwaukee averages 23.2 assists per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. New York ranks 21st in assists allowed per game (23.8).
The Bucks rank fourth in blocks per game (5.5) while the Knicks rank 10th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
Neither of these teams shoot many threes. Milwaukee is 25th in the NBA with 25.1 three pointers per game while New York is 29th with 23.6 threes per game.
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