The Cincinnati Reds will try to avoid losing their fourth straight game they play host to the New York Mets at Great American Ball Park. SportsNet New York will showcase this NL showdown and the action gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET.
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Odds
New York (+120) is entering this game as the underdog to Cincinnati (-130) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs (-110 for the over and -110 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at -175 for the Mets +1.5 runs and +155 for the Reds -1.5 runs.
The Mets are 18-15 SU and have gone 15-17 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 0.3 units for moneyline bettors over the early portions of the year and 0.9 units ATS. New York’s covered the spread just once over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Reds, on the other hand, are 8-27 SU and 16-18 ATS. The team has lost 17.2 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 7.2 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Reds games have had an over/under record of 16-18 so far in 2018. New York has an over/under record of 16-15-1.
Southpaw Jason Vargas will get the nod for New York. Vargas is 0-2 with a 16.20 ERA and eight strikeouts. He has yet to face the Reds this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Reds will send righty Luis Castillo (1-4, 7.01 ERA) to the mound. Castillo has 31 strikeouts and 14 walks to his name, as well as a 1.67 WHIP. Castillo did not record a start against the Mets in 2017.
As a unit, Cincinnati’s pitchers have yielded 5.5 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 5.68 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.83 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.0 K/9.
Cincinnati’s offense is putting up 4.0 runs per contest, including 5.1 per game over its last 10 games and 3.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .201/.294/.384 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.
The Reds’ batters have been led by first baseman Joey Votto and third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Votto is hitting .282/.404/.444 with five home runs, 19 RBIs and 13 runs scored, while Suarez is batting .290 with five homers, 21 RBIs and 12 runs.
Suarez enjoyed batting against lefty pitching at home last season, slashing .255/.391/.564 across 69 such plate appearances (compared to his total season line of .260/.367/.461).
For the visitors, New York’s pitchers have allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.52 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.89, along with a WHIP of 1.31.
Mets hitters have slashed .234/.320/.379 on their way to 4.4 runs scored per game this year, including 3.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and third baseman Todd Frazier have led New York’s offense. Cabrera is slashing .320/.369/.555 with six home runs, 21 RBIs and 22 runs scored, while Frazier (.237/.357/.412) has produced five homers, 21 RBIs and 18 runs scored.
Frazier seemed to enjoy hitting right-handed pitchers on the road in 2017. Over 228 such plate appearances, he put up a slash line of .261/.386/.505 (compared to his overall season line of .214/.345/.425).
The Mets have lost 0.1 units and are 10-13 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 13 of those games, compared to nine that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Reds have lost 3.1 units and are 3-4 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in three of those games, compared to four that’ve gone under.
New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Reds, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Mets have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games. The Reds have hit 13 over their last 10.
Cincinnati has posted 23.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.0 over its last five.
The Reds have lost six of their last seven games SU.
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