The Atlanta Braves are set to host their NL East nemesis New York Mets at SunTrust Park. SportsNet New York will be airing the matchup and the game will get underway at 7:35 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
The Mets have gone 26-25 SU this year and are 23-26 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.0 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 3.0 units ATS. New York is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 31-22 SU and 30-21 ATS. They’ve gained 12.8 units for moneyline bettors and 6.7 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven.
Atlanta games have an over/under record of 24-24-3 so far in 2018. The Mets have an over/under record of 22-26-1.
Steven Matz is getting the nod for the Mets. The left-handed Matz is 2-3 with a 3.80 ERA and 39 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Braves this year and only made one start against them in 2017 (1-0, 1.29 ERA and two strikeouts over seven innings).
The Braves will be sending righty Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 1.29 ERA) to the mound. Sanchez has 14 strikeouts and six walks to his name, as well as a 1.21 WHIP. Sanchez did not record a start against the Mets in 2017.
Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 3.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.67 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 33 games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 3.12 and the bullpen’s ERA is 2.89.
The Atlanta offense is putting up 5.1 runs per outing, including 5.4 per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .274/.352/.446 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
Right fielder Nick Markakis and first baseman Freddie Freeman have led the way for the Braves’ offense this year. Markakis is hitting .341/.406/.512 with seven home runs, 37 RBIs and 33 runs scored, while Freeman is hitting .333 with nine homers, 40 RBIs, 34 runs and five stolen bases.
Freeman didn’t perform particularly well against left-handed pitching at home in 2017. Across 69 such plate appearances, he slashed .222/.275/.397 (compared to his overall season line of .307/.403/.586).
In the other dugout, New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.21 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 9.78 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.17, along with a WHIP of 1.33.
The Mets offense has slashed .242/.321/.389 on its way to 4.2 runs scored per game this season, including 3.8 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).
New York’s hitters have been powered by second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and shortstop Amed Rosario. Cabrera is slashing .313/.352/.523 with eight home runs, 31 RBIs and 28 runs scored, while Rosario is hitting .253/.282/.370 with three homers, 18 RBIs and 19 runs scored.
The Mets have lost 1.9 units and are 16-20 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 19 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 6.2 units and are 8-7 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in nine of those games, compared to six which went under the total.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The Mets have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including eight over their last five.
New York has averaged 22.2 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 contests and 25.8 over its last five.
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