In the first of a three-game series between the New York Mets (32-29) and the Atlanta Braves (32-29) at Citi Field, Bartolo Colon (8-4, 4.52 ERA) and Alex Wood (4-3, 3.36 ERA) get the ball. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Jun. 12 and will air on FSN-S and SNY.
Colon is 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA against the Braves in his career, but is up against a solid Atlanta offense that’s hitting .257 on the year. Michael Cuddyer (.270, 27 Rs, 6 HRs, 26 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 5 with two RBIs. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Wood is 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA, 34 strikeouts and 12 walks. Freddie Freeman (.304, 39 Rs, 11 HRs, 37 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Braves, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
New York, a -130 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Atlanta. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Mets perform well as a favorite with a 25-8 record and have an overall money line of +79. They have performed well against their division to earn an SU record of 21-11 and a 17-5 record when they were the favorite. New York’s pitchers are doing better against opposing batters during divisional games, only allowing an average of 3.2 runs per game, well under their season average of 3.8. The Mets don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking second in the league with a 1.17 WHIP.
Across the field, the Braves have a record of 20-25 when they are the underdog and are +246 overall with the money line. Against divisional opponents, they are 13-14 SU and 8-10 as the underdog. The Braves average just 6.8 strikeouts per game, good for least in the NL.
The Mets have gotten the best of the Braves in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-2. The Mets will take on a left-hander (Wood) in this game and have a 4-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the right-hander Colon. They sport a 25-27 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 16-11, while Atlanta is 12-22.
The Mets are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Braves have a record of 4-7 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 5-20. The Mets have a 9-23 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 39 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 17th with 52.
Ranking 14th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.93 per game. Atlanta ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.69.
Ranking 26th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.677). Atlanta ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .695.
When the Braves allow at least one home run, they are 10-22, well-matched with the Mets who are 13-21 when allowing at least one homer.
