Noah Syndergaard (8-6, 3.19 ERA) and Wade Miley (10-10, 4.51 ERA) start in the last of a three-game series between the New York Mets (71-58) and the Boston Red Sox (60-69) at Citi Field. The Red Sox won the last game 3-1 and Boston leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 30 and can be seen on NESN and SNY.
Syndergaard pitched 5.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering two runs (two unearned), striking out nine and walking two in a 6-5 win over the Phillies. Lucas Duda (.247, 57 Rs, 21 HRs, 56 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. Miley went 6.2 innings, surrendering five runs, striking out three and walking one in a 5-4 defeat to the White Sox in his most recent start. David Ortiz (.265, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 77 RBIs) went 1 for 1 yesterday.
This one isn’t expected to be close when New York, a big -180 favorite, takes on Boston. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of seven runs. The Mets have recorded an overall money line of +1,166 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 55-20. New York is an impressive 6-1 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Mets have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 8.6 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. New York is one of the best in the NL in terms of walks at home, earning an average of 3.2 per game. Turning to the pitchers, opposing offenses that come to Citi Field have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.00 at home. The Mets are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.17 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Boston has a 26-30 record and an overall money line of -1,442. They played solid baseball as the underdog over their last 10 games with a 5-2 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in interleague games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.5 runs per game by averaging 5.5 in those contests. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but have improved upon those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 3.5 runs per game during that span.
The Red Sox have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Mets have a 15-13 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Miley takes the mound. Syndergaard (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 44-48 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
Having scored one run in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have a 21-2 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
It looks like the Red Sox have a slight leg up on the Mets, as the Red Sox have won their last three games while the Mets have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 49-7. The Mets have a 51-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 16th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 525 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 585.
New York and Boston both rank in the top half of the league in walks. New York sits at 12th with 375 this season and Boston ranks 11th with 378.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 47-23. When the Red Sox hit at least one homer, they have a 45-39 record.
