Jacob deGrom (12-6, 2.29 ERA) takes the mound for the New York Mets (71-56) as they meet Joe Kelly (7-6, 5.18 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (58-69) in the second of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Red Sox won the last game 6-4 and Boston leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 4:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 29 and will air on FS1, NESN and WPIX.
In his most recent outing, deGrom pitched 2.2 innings, giving up six runs (one unearned), striking out three and walking three in a 16-7 loss to the Phillies. Lucas Duda (.247, 57 Rs, 21 HRs, 56 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI. The Red Sox were victorious the last time Kelly pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 7.1 innings, allowing two runs, striking out four and walking one in a 5-4 victory over the White Sox. David Ortiz (.263, 56 Rs, 27 HRs, 77 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well for the Red Sox, going 2 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI.
New York is a heavy -190 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Mets have a winning record of 55-19 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,361. They are 6-1 as the favorite over their last 10 games. New York has averaged 8.3 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.1. New York’s pitching staff performs very well on its own field, recording a low 2.96 team ERA at home. The Mets don’t allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.17 WHIP.
Across the field, the Red Sox have a record of 25-30 when they are the underdog and are -1,626 overall with the money line. Against interleague competitors, they are 8-6 SU and 1-1 as the underdog. When it comes to scoring runs, the Red Sox have performed much better than normal against teams from the NL. During those games, they averaged five runs per game, above their 4.5 season average.
The only other game between the two teams went Boston’s way. This game will feature Kelly (RHP) on the mound against the Mets, who have a 56-44 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed deGrom will take the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 43-48 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 45% (28-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 58% (28-20) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Red Sox are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have an 11-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Red Sox are 47-7. The Mets have a 51-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 17th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in runs, scoring 520 this season. Boston ranks in the top five at third with 576.
Ranking 16th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 360 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 374.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 47-23. When the Red Sox hit at least one homer, they have a 43-39 record.
