Jacob deGrom (8-5, 2.15 ERA) and the New York Mets (40-39) square off against Jake Arrieta (7-5, 2.94 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (41-35) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Cubs won the last game 2-0 and Chicago leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jul. 2 and can be seen on WGN and SNY.
deGrom pitched 8.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs and striking out seven in a 2-0 win over the Brewers. Curtis Granderson (.254, 42 Rs, 13 HRs, 27 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday. Arrieta is 1-1 with a 2.02 ERA when pitching against the Mets. He takes on a below-average New York offense which is hitting just .232 this season. Anthony Rizzo (.298, 43 Rs, 15 HRs, 44 RBIs, 12 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run and one stolen base.
New York is a -119 favorite against Chicago and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at six runs. Though the Mets have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-53), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 33-12. The Mets have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 2.1 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.5 runs per game. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Mets, who have a team ERA of only 3.44. The Mets are the fourth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.19 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Chicago has a 16-16 record and an overall money line of +188. Offensively, the Cubs have really sputtered in the last 10 games. They have decreased their season average of 4.0 runs per game by averaging 2.4 during that stretch. Chicago’s pitching staff is one of the top in the NL, with a 3.48 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cubs are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.18 for the season.
The Cubs have dominated the season series, 6-0. The Mets have a 34-32 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Arrieta takes the mound. deGrom (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cubs, who have a 33-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 17-15, while Chicago is 16-15.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cubs have a 10-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
It looks like the Cubs have a slight leg up on the Mets, as the Cubs have won their last two games while the Mets have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 28-6. The Mets have a 26-3 record when outhitting opponents.
New York and Chicago both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. New York sits at 27th with 276 runs this season and Chicago ranks 24th with 298.
Ranking 20th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 212 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at fourth with 257.
The Mets are 25-14 when they hit at least one home run. The Cubs perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 25-15 record.
