Jon Niese (3-7, 4.12 ERA) and Josh Smith (0-0, 12.00 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a two-game series between the New York Mets (38-37) and the Cincinnati Reds (34-38) at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 2-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jun. 28 and can be seen on FSN-OH and SNY.
Niese is 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 41 strikeouts against the Reds. Curtis Granderson (.250, 41 Rs, 12 HRs, 24 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 Friday with one run, one home run, one RBI, and one stolen base. Smith went 3.0 innings, surrendering four runs, striking out three and walking six in a 7-6 defeat to the Pirates in his last outing. Todd Frazier (.293, 53 Rs, 24 HRs, 52 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 Friday.
New York is a -140 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. Though the Mets have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-153), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 31-12. The Mets have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 1.6 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.6 runs per game. Turning to the pitchers, the Mets are the fifth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.20 so far this season.
In the other locker room, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -432 and a disappointing record of 14-26 as the underdog. The Reds are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 75 stolen bases. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are third in the NL with an average of 8.2 hits allowed per game.
The Mets have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Mets have a 32-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Smith takes the mound. Niese (LHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 9-10 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 43% (13-17) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 53% (17-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 1-5 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-26. The Mets have an 11-30 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 19th in home runs, New York has hit 64 this season. Cincinnati ranks sixth with 86 home runs.
Ranking 15th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.71 per game. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.49.
Ranking 28th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.663). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .720.
The Reds are 15-30 when they allow at least one home run. The Mets perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 15-25 record.
