In the last of a four-game series between the New York Mets (9-3) and the Miami Marlins (9-3) at Citi Field, Matt Harvey (2-0, 2.25 ERA) and Tom Koehler (1-1, 3.18 ERA) get the start. The Mets won the last game 5-4, extending a seven-game winning streak. New York can finish out the series sweep with a win in this game. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Apr. 19 and will air on FSN-FL and SNY.
Harvey is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA against the Marlins in his career, and is up against a struggling Miami offense that’s hitting just .234 on the year. Michael Cuddyer (.333, 8 Rs, 1 HR, 7 RBIs) continued his hot start yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run. In his career against the Mets, Koehler is 1-3 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 49 strikeouts. Dee Gordon (.400, 7 Rs, 9 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been hitting the ball well to start the season for the Marlins, going 5 for 5 yesterday with three RBIs.
New York is a considerable -206 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at six runs. The Mets have a winning record of 5-1 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +548. They have impressive records of 5-1 as the favorite and 8-3 SU within their division. The Mets typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.5 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, the Mets are fifth in the league in WHIP at 1.06.
Moving on to the away team, the Marlins are coming into the game in dire straits. They are winless as the underdog (0-3) and have an overall money line of -640. Against divisional opponents, they are 2-6 SU and have a poor 0-3 record when they were an underdog to win. The Marlins seem to play worse against their division opponents. In divisional matchups, Miami has averaged 3.1 runs per game, compared to 3.6 for the duration of the season. Miami’s pitching staff tends to perform well when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.2 runs per game against teams from the NL East, lower than their season average of 4.8.
The previous three games have all gone New York’s way. This game will feature Koehler (RHP) on the mound against the Mets, who have not lost a game (5-0) when they take on a right-handed starter at home. The right-handed Harvey will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 2-7 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
The Marlins lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Mets are 3-1. The Marlins are 1-3 in close games this season.
The Marlins are 1-0 when they go into extra innings.
The Marlins are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Mets have a 1-1 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 0-5. The Mets have a 2-3 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, New York ranks 21st with nine homers and Miami is 24th with seven.
New York and Miami both rank in the top 10 of the league in hits. New York sits at seventh with 7.91 hits per game and Miami ranks 10th with 7.36.
New York and Miami both rank in the bottom half of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. New York sits at 16th with an OPS of .690 and Miami ranks 19th with an OPS of .648.
The Marlins are 3-5 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 6-3 when they allow at least one homer.
