In the last of a four-game series between the New York Mets (23-18) and the St. Louis Cardinals (23-18) at Citi Field, Jacob deGrom (4-4, 3.21 ERA) and Jaime Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA) get the ball. The Cardinals won the last game 9-0 and St. Louis leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, May. 21 and will air on FSN-MW and SNY.
In his last start, deGrom pitched 6.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out six and walking one in a 14-1 victory over the Brewers. Lucas Duda (.295, 20 Rs, 3 HRs, 15 RBIs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Garcia is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA. He gets a struggling New York offense that’s batting just .234. Matt Holliday (.328, 17 Rs, 3 HRs, 23 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been doing well, going 3 for 4 yesterday with one run and one RBI.
New York is a -128 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Mets perform well as a favorite with an 18-4 record and have an overall money line of +625. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (4-1). The Mets lead the NL in home ERA with a 2.64 team average. The Mets don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking fifth in the league with a 1.16 WHIP.
Across the field, the Cardinals have a record of 5-6 when they are the underdog and are +1,128 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 4-6 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 1-4 record. They have the lowest ERA in the NL at 2.79. They also allow just 7.5 hits per road game, good for tops in the NL. The St. Louis pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging an NL-best 8.9 strikeouts per game.
The Cardinals are 2-1 against the Mets this season. The Mets will take on a left-hander (Garcia) in this game and have a 3-5 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed deGrom will take the mound against the Cardinals. Against righty starters this season, they’ve racked up an impressive 21-8 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – STL, O/U – Over
Notes
New York has won 72% (13-5) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 73% (11-4) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Mets are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cardinals have a 4-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
It looks like the Cardinals have a slight leg up on the Mets, as the Cardinals have won their last two games while the Mets have lost their last two.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cardinals are 18-6. The Mets have a 14-2 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, New York is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 153 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 181.
Ranking 17th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 114 this season. St. Louis ranks in the top half at 13th with 127.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 14-6, well-matched with the Cardinals who are 17-6 when hitting one or more homers.
