In a game that has the potential for a lot of runs, Mat Latos (2-4, 5.44 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (29-38) are in New York to square off against CC Sabathia (3-7, 5.38 ERA) and the Yankees (35-30). This is the second of a two-game series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won the last game 2-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jun. 18 and can be seen on FSN-FL and YES.
Sabathia pitched 5.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering four runs and striking out three in a 9-4 defeat to the Orioles. Latos went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out 11 and walking two in a 4-1 win over the Rockies in his last outing.
New York is a -134 favorite against Miami and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Yankees have an overall money line of +74 and a record as the favorite of 18-14. In interleague play, they have a 3-3 record when they were the favorite and 3-6 SU. The Yankees have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the AL in home offense with 5.3 runs per game. The Yankees are one of the best in the MLB in terms of home runs with 79. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Yankees are the fourth-best team in the AL at limiting walks to their opponents, allowing only 2.6 walks per game so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Miami has a 14-19 record and an overall money line of -968. Miami is 1-3 as the underdog and 5-6 SU against interleague opponents. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 9.0 hits per game. The Marlins allow 4.1 runs per game, but does worse whenever an AL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.9 against teams from the AL.
The Marlins lead the season series, 2-1. The Yankees have a 25-23 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Latos takes the mound. Sabathia (LHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have an 8-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, New York is 14-19, while Miami is 13-20.
The Yankees managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are coming in with a 12-8 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 4-24. The Yankees have a 6-23 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 19th in home runs, Miami has hit 55 this season. New York ranks fifth with 79 home runs.
Ranking ninth, New York is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.55 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.98.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.694). New York ranks in the top 10 at seventh with an OPS of .728.
The Marlins are 13-23 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Yankees are 18-24 when they allow at least one homer.
