Nathan Eovaldi (14-2, 4.17 ERA) and the New York Yankees (75-58) meet Matt Moore (1-3, 8.78 ERA) and the Tampa Bay Rays (66-68) in the second of a three-game division series at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees won the last game 5-2 and New York leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 1:05 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 5 and will air on FS1.
In his last start, Eovaldi pitched 5.0 innings, allowing five runs, striking out seven and walking two in a 20-6 victory over the Braves. Alex Rodriguez (.256, 72 Rs, 27 HRs, 75 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Rays were unsuccessful the last time Moore pitched. He struggled, going 3.0 innings, giving up six runs, striking out two and walking one in an 11-7 loss to the Red Sox. Logan Forsythe (.290, 59 Rs, 15 HRs, 53 RBIs, 9 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
New York is a -168 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Yankees have a winning record of 49-30 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +442. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (6-2). New York has averaged 6.4 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.9. Turning to the pitching staff, an area where the Yankees are particularly strong is striking batters out, where they average 8.4 K’s per game.
Across the field, the Rays have a record of 34-38 when they are the underdog and are -374 overall with the money line. Against fellow AL East members, they are 26-27 SU and 15-16 as the underdog. During the last 10 games, they averaged 4.8 runs per game, above their 3.8 season average. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 5.1 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 3.9. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging 7.9 strikeouts per game.
The Yankees have gotten the best of the Rays in head-to-head matchups this season, going 9-5. The Yankees will take on a left-hander (Moore) in this game and have a 23-15 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Eovaldi will take the mound against the Rays, who have a 42-53 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Under
Notes
New York has won 48% (31-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Tampa Bay has won 49% (27-28) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Rays are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Yankees have a 25-30 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Rays are 13-41. The Yankees have a 16-45 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 15th in home runs, Tampa Bay has hit 130 this season. New York ranks third with 180 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Tampa Bay is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.38 per game. New York ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.83.
Ranking 20th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.713). New York ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .759.
When the Rays allow at least one home run, they are 31-51. When the Yankees allow one or more homers, they have a 38-45 record.
