In the first of a three-game series between the New York Yankees (42-37) and the Tampa Bay Rays (42-37) at Yankee Stadium, Masahiro Tanaka (4-3, 3.88 ERA) and Chris Archer (9-5, 2.31 ERA) get the start. The Rays go into this series looking to snap a five-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Jul. 3 and will air on SunSports, YES and MLB Net.
Tanaka has a 1.93 ERA and a 2-0 record in his career against the Rays, and is up against a struggling Tampa Bay offense that’s hitting just .240 on the year. Brett Gardner (.304, 58 Rs, 9 HRs, 39 RBIs, 15 SBs) went 1 for 4 Wednesday. In his career against the Yankees, Archer is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA. He meets a strong New York offense that’s batting .256. Joey Butler (.314, 21 Rs, 6 HRs, 21 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run.
New York is a -122 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. The Yankees are 24-17 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -220. They have an SU record of 17-15 against teams in their division and a 9-7 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Yankees are a dangerous hitting team with 251 extra base hits, one of the highest totals in the MLB. The Yankees typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an impressive 3.2 walks per game. Turning to the pitching staff, the Yankees don’t give up many walks to opposing batters, ranking second in the AL with only 2.6 walks allowed per game. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, averaging 8.4 strikeouts per game.
On the other side, the Rays have a record of 21-19 when they are the underdog and are +292 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 2-8 SU and have a poor 0-3 record when they were an underdog to win. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.3 runs per game, below their 3.6 season average. Tampa Bay is a terror on the base paths, ranking fifth in the MLB with 59 stolen bases. Shifting to the pitching staff, they have a WHIP of 1.20 on the year, good for fourth in the league.
The Yankees have gotten the best of the Rays in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-4. The Yankees will take on a right-hander (Archer) in this game and have a 31-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Tanaka will take the mound against the Rays, who have a 27-30 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
The Rays lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Yankees are 10-11. The Rays are 11-15 in close games this season.
When the Rays play into extra innings, they have a 2-5 record. The Yankees are 1-4 when their games exceed nine innings.
The Rays are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded nine strikeouts. The Yankees have a record of 6-17 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Rays are 29-9. The Yankees have a 29-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 26th in runs, Tampa Bay has earned 291 this season. New York ranks second with 368 runs.
Ranking 19th, Tampa Bay is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 215 this season. New York ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 254.
The Yankees are 35-21 when they hit at least one home run. The Rays perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 30-18 record.
