A week ago, this game had all the hallmarks of a consolation prize as the winner would get to be the team defeated by the New England Patriots in their sixth Super Bowl victory and eight appearance overall. Then Tom Brady’s hand blew up in practice and the NFC Championship between the Minnesota Vikings (14-3) and Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) at Lincoln Financial Field suddenly became a lot more interesting.
If you want to watch this defensive slugfest, fine tune your interocitor to to the FOX network and it’s affiliates at 6:40 p.m. EST Depending what happens in the early game, this one could turn into a barnburner. Or whatever Nick Foles and Case Keenum are capable of burning.
The Game: Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3)
O/U: 38.5
The History
The Eagles and Vikings have faced off just 26 times since 1962 and three of the games have been in the playoffs. The all-time series is tied 13-13, but Philadelphia has won every single postseason matchup and is 3-0.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (14-3)
Make no mistake. The Minnesota Vikings aren’t supposed to be here. Keenum played well against the New Orleans Saints last week in their 29-24 Divisional Round victory, but that last play, a freak pass to Stefon Diggs that turned into a touchdown, was an anomaly. And it was an anomaly that set up the worst final four quarterback match up since 2000 and the absolute biggest margin of talent and ability between one guy, Tom Brady, and all three of the potential quarterbacks he could face.
https://twitter.com/thedailywolf/status/953022020161335298
But, hey, congratulations, Minnesota. You got here and are one game away from being the first NFL team in history to play the Super Bowl on its home turf. Case Keenum was 25-of-40 against the Saints for 318 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He gave his receivers a chance to make plays late, even if some of the throws were, shall we say, ill-advised.
The Saints were able to take away much of Minnesota’s run game. The Vikings had just 95 total yards on the ground and Philadelphia’s defense will be more than happy to close that down and put the game in Keenum’s hands. He’s delivered so far this season, but needless to say, this is the biggest game of his life. If Keenum can get the Vikings to the Super Bowl, even if they lose it, he’ll command starting quarterback money next year and could very likely get a long-term deal in Minnesota. He’s still young enough to be a franchise quarterback.
I DIGGS it! pic.twitter.com/cRWVzd6atj
— Case Keenum (@casekeenum) January 15, 2018
The only defense comparable to the Eagles’ unit is the one Keenum faces every day in practice. I think Philadelphia is better up front, but Minnesota is better on the back end. That means Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Jarius Wright will get their opportunities downfield. It’ll just be up to the Vikings’ offensive line to keep the pressure off Keenum long enough for those plays to develop. They’ve been OK this season, but not great.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (14-3)
How good was Nick Foles in the NFC Divisional round? Pretty great, actually. He was 23-of-30 for 246 yards and, most importantly, no interceptions. He didn’t throw a touchdown, but he set up the Eagles only trip to the end zone on the day, a plunge from LeGarrette Blount, who usually can’t be denied from short range.
Philadelphia is facing an elite defense in Minnesota, so it will be up to Foles not to screw it up with bad decisions and interceptions. He has elite weapons in Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz and OK weapons in Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith. Jeffery will likely have Xavier Rhodes in his face all game, but Ertz could be the gamebreaker here, especially with quick passes down the seam as the Eagles will have to mitigate pressure from Everson Griffen. The great thing about Jeffery is even if Rhodes cover is perfect, it might not matter. Few players outside of Julio Jones can jump with the big man on 50-50 balls.
It’s really hitting me.
The Eagles are writing the most “Philly” championship story right before our eyes – an “underdog” team, a coach no one wanted, Nick Foles, and a historically resilient group of men.
Maybe, just MAYBE, it’s supposed to happen like this. pic.twitter.com/qvRXpXC5pX
— Eagles Fan Central (@EagleFanCentral) January 15, 2018
The Eagles need to keep a run-heavy and play-action attack going as long as they can. They definitely have the advantage with two huge, bruising backs in Blount and Jay Ajayi. The more Philly can do on the ground, the better their chances.
Defensively, Philadelphia matches up pretty well. The Vikings’ best weapons are Theilen and Diggs and while both guys are good wide receivers, they’re not elite. They can be contained or at least minimized. The best thing the Eagles can do is produce pressure in Keenum’s face right up the middle. Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jermigan could be in for a big day.
Fun Fact
This isn’t my gag, but it’s one that’s been on the internet for a couple of days. I have no idea who to give the credit, so I just want you to know this observation doesn’t belong to me. Still, it’s too good to share. Both Keenum and Foles are former Jeff Fisher quarterbacks who have found much more success away from the mustachioed perennial loser. They face off Sunday in the NFC Championship. Keenum wears No. 7. Foles wears No. 9. That’s right. 7-9. You are welcome.
2 quarterbacks coached by Jeff Fisher with the Rams are playing in the NFC Championship game.
Their numbers?
7 and 9. pic.twitter.com/ynLf9IcBgQ
— SB Nation (@SBNation) January 15, 2018
The Pick
For the second week in a row, the Eagles are home dogs in spite of proving the books wrong last week with their victory over the Falcons. Here’s why Minnesota worries me. They’re a dome team playing in the cold on the road against one of the best defenses in the league. Many of Keenum’s passes that worked last week were just bad decisions that turned out OK. In the first half, he scrambled right and threw back across his body for a completion. This is, literally, the worst thing a quarterback can do and the exact same play Brett Favre tried when he tossed an interception that knocked the Vikings out of a chance to go to the Super Bowl back in 2010. Minnesota has some tough decisions to make at quarterback this off-season. I think they get the chance to make them a week early. Eagles 20, Vikings 16
Last week
Straight up: 1-3
Against the spread: 1-3
Playoffs
Straight up: 3-5
Against the spread: 3-5
Season
Straight up: 160-104
Against the spread: 123-135
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