The NFL season has reached the halfway point. Some interesting trends have been derived in terms of who to bet on and who to avoid. Let’s recap the best and worst NFL teams against the spread (ATS) so far.
Best Against The Spread
Indianapolis Colts: 6-2 ATS
The Colts have scored 250 points in eight games, the most among all teams in the NFL and the most among all teams that have played eight games. New England has scored 238 points in eight games, just behind Indianapolis. One thing to keep in mind about Indianapolis as a team against the spread is that the Colts play in the AFC South, where the competition isn’t as strong as it is in other divisions. The Colts also played the Cincinnati Bengals earlier this season on a day when Cincinnati star receiver A.J. Green was hurt. This made it easier for the Indianapolis defense to shut down the Bengals’ offense.
The main thing about the Colts is that with Andrew Luck playing quarterback, a late-game touchdown to cover the spread is almost always a possibility. Indianapolis can score in bunches, so if you think you’re not going to get an against-the-spread victory after three quarters, that can change in four quarters.
Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs: 5-2 ATS
The Broncos have scored 224 points in seven games, which is an average of 32 points per game. That’s actually a higher points-per-game average than Indianapolis, which is just above 31 points per game.
The Chiefs are a very different kind of example in terms of a team that is successful against the spread. The Chiefs have allowed only 128 points, the second best total of any team to this point in the season. They have played only seven games instead of eight, but still – 128 points allowed is an average of under 18.5 points per game. That’s going to win most of the time.
The Chiefs win against the spread because of their defense. The Broncos win against the spread because of their offense. This is not a one-size-fits-all sport. There are many paths to the same basic destination.
Worst Against The Spread
New York Jets: 1-6-1 ATS
The Jets are the worst team in the league, and they should be one of the worst teams in the league based on the numbers. New York has scored only 144 points while giving up 228, a negative differential of 84 points. The quarterback situation with Geno Smith and Michael Vick is and has been a disaster. New York is going to continue to be a fairly easy team to bet against, relative to the spread.
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-6 ATS
The Jaguars are better than the Jets, but not according to the numbers. The Jaguars have the dubious distinction of being the only team in the NFL with a negative point differential of at least 100 points. The number is exactly 100, with the Jags scoring 118 points and giving up 218. Jacksonville has been completely ineffective in all aspects of football this season. The team has played a few games close but has basically not had an answer for any opponent it has played.
