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NFL Betting: Examining The Chicago Bears Regular Season Win Total

No one really knew what to think of the Chicago Bears coming into the 2013 season. They had a new head coach in Marc Trestman, who made his name with the Montreal Alouettes in the CFL, and his hiring was slightly controversial after Lovie Smith was let go following a 10-6 season. Trestman got the offense rolling, however, the defense struggled and the Bears came in at 8-8, missing the playoffs for the third straight season.

The postseason is the goal for the Bears this season and if they can at least be competent on defense, they could be a dark horse in the NFC North.

Strengths

As far as passing games go, there are few teams that are better than the Bears. Receiver Alshon Jeffery burst onto the season to stretch opposing defenses, which took the pressure off Brandon Marshall and opened things up in the middle for tight end Martellus Bennett. With Matt Forte serving as one of the most versatile running backs in the league, the Bears offense proved to be prolific. With all of those parts back, the key to this year is a healthy Jay Cutler, who was catching on to the offense before he got hurt. The Bears put up a ton of numbers with Josh McCown backing him up and but everyone knows that Cutler – at his best – is an infinitely better quarterback than McCown.

On defense, the Bears’ front seven should be better than last season, which was their first in the post-Brian Urlacher era. Julius Peppers is gone but the duo of Jared Allen and Lamarr Houston will fill the void and bring more balance to the line. D.J. Williams is back to anchor the linebackers while Lance Briggs was also hurt and would like to bounce back with a strong campaign.

Weaknesses

Chicago’s offensive line allowed just 30 sacks last season, a far cry from recent seasons and they should give a lot of credit to Trestman’s system for that. But now the players have to prove that was no fluke. They have to do better in run blocking as well as the Bears were 16th on the ground. With a stud like Forte in the backfield, the Bears have to be better in that regard. It would also ease the pass rush on Cutler, who needs to be kept protected if the Bears are going to do anything significant in 2014.

The defense as a whole is a question mark but the secondary could be a weak spot again. Cornerback Charles Tillman is coming back from injury, safety Chris Conte might not be ready for camp due to a shoulder problem while Ryan Mundy will be plugged into the other safety spot. Rookie Kyle Fuller will push Tim Jennings at the corner position, but no one knows what to expect from this unit. The safety spots look particularly weak and if the revamped defensive line can’t generate a pass rush, this team will give up a lot of yards through the air and a lot of points.

Schedule

Chicago’s schedule ranks 15th in the NFL and their slate on the road is tough: the San Francisco 49ers, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings. But they do kick off the season with the Buffalo Bills at home and they’ll get winnable home games against the Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions. That’s basing things on last year, though. If the Cowboys, Saints, Lions and Dolphins prove to be playoff-caliber teams, the Bears schedule could turn out to be a real doozy.

Outlook

Much of the Bears’ fortunes this season depends on Cutler’s ability stay healthy and that is always a shaky proposition. The defense simply can’t be worse, so if the offense keeps on churning – as it should – the Bears should contend for a playoff spot. The schedule is difficult but manageable.  If everything goes right for the Bears, they could win the division and make some serious noise in the NFC. However, a 10-6 record and a spot in the playoffs seems more realistic.

Pick: Over 9

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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