A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. As we’ll see, Week 3’s biggest injuries are already having an effect on the early Week 4 lines. Here are the Week 4 biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders
Opening: Cleveland Browns (EVEN) at Oakland Raiders
Tyrod Taylor’s injury had major implications in that it gave the Browns enough information to name Baker Mayfield the new starting quarterback. A high-profile primetime win got the Browns even odds on the road against the winless Raiders, but the public would not soon forget Cleveland has one win since December 2016. One could also make the argument that the Raiders are underrated. Their 20-point loss to the Rams was a one-score game until the final 10 minutes. They had a one-point loss in Denver and an eight-point loss to Miami in a dreaded 10 a.m. PT kickoff. They’ll also be pulling out all the stops since their season is pretty much over if they start 0-4 and can’t beat the Browns at home.
San Francisco 49ers (+11.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Opening: San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Clearly, oddsmakers underestimated public perception of the 49ers without Jimmy Garoppolo. In fairness to the public, the 49ers were terrible before acquiring Garoppolo before the 2017 trade deadline. With Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard at quarterback, the 49ers went 1-10 and lost by an average of 10.7 points per game. But things were especially bad under Beathard, as the 49ers scored 14.6 points per game and lost five games by an average of 15.2 points. Now Beathard is back and the 49ers still don’t have another quarterback on the roster. They’ll travel to face a Chargers team that is 1-2 but lost to two of the best teams in the league in the Chiefs and the Rams.
Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at New England Patriots
Opening: Miami Dolphins (+9.5) at New England Patriots
The annual Patriot Panic is in full effect. After getting embarrassed by the Lions on national television, perhaps this is the year the wheels fall off the Brady-Belichick era. Plus the Dolphins join the Chiefs and Rams as one of the league’s three unbeaten teams. The public also likely remembers last season’s Week 14 Monday Night Football game between these two, when Jay Cutler and Kenyan Drake led the Dolphins to a 27-20 upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) at Chicago Bears
Opening: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Chicago Bears
Interesting that bettors would jump on the Bears after squeaking by the 0-3 Cardinals. Also interesting that bettors are going against the Bucs when we don’t know if Jameis Winston or Ryan Fitzpatrick will start. Each of these 2-1 teams could easily be 3-0 had one or two plays gone their way. This will be the fifth straight season they’ve met, with each team winning two in the series. Though it’s worth noting that their 2016 and 2017 meetings were both blowout Tampa wins. One trend working in Chicago’s favor: they’ve won five of their last six home games against the Bucs, all by three points or more. They’re 21-6 all-time when hosting Tampa.
