A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. After four games, we’re starting to learn who most of these teams are. But there are still some disagreements, as the early line movements show. Here are the Week 5 biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
Denver Broncos (EVEN) at New York Jets
Opening: Denver Broncos (+2.5) at New York Jets
Both of these teams are in the middle of losing streaks. The Broncos had the Chiefs on the ropes before Patrick Mahomes led Kansas City to 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Jets, meanwhile, have looked terrible after their surprise season-opening win over Detroit. They were the ones who gave Cleveland their first win in nearly two years and then got blown out by the Jaguars. The Broncos have beaten the Jets in their last three meetings, but are 0-3-1 against the spread this year. The Jets haven’t covered since the aforementioned Lions game. Bettors are also clearly not bothered by the west coast team playing an early game in the Eastern Time zone. More than anything, this movement likely comes from Denver looking decent the last time we saw them and the Jets looking terrible for weeks.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | NFL Opening Odds
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Cleveland Browns
Opening: Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns
For the second straight week, the Browns are not getting the bettors’ respect. It made sense last week since the Raiders had their backs against the wall and had to win to avoid acknowledging complete and utter failure in Jon Gruden’s return season. This also makes sense for the same reasons as Denver. Baltimore beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday night and shut them out in the second half. That is difficult to do. If they could do it to Pittsburgh, beating Cleveland on the road is no problem, right? It will be interesting to see how this one goes, as the Ravens are 2-0 against the spread on the road while the Browns are 2-0 against the spread at home.
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
Opening: Miami Dolphins (+5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
For one, the Bengals could be getting Joe Mixon back. But, more than likely, it was the “they are who we thought they were” game between Miami and New England. The 3-0 Dolphins were widely considered paper tigers and earned the reputation with a 38-7 loss to the Patriots. The Bengals are also 3-1, but their path was much more difficult. They had to face Indianapolis, Carolina and Atlanta on the road, plus Baltimore at home. All three of Cincinnati’s wins (Indy, Baltimore, Atlanta) are more impressive than two of Miami’s (New York Jets, Oakland). The Week 1 home win over Tennessee was the only bright spot. It’s fair for bettors to expect the Bengals to win by more than a touchdown.
Arizona Cardinals (+4.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Opening: Arizona Cardinals (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers were competitive in their first post-Garoppolo game against the Chargers. The Cardinals are 0-4 despite playing three games at home. It makes sense to pile on the Cardinals while they’re down. But bettor beware on this one. The Cardinals have won the last six meetings with the 49ers. Not only that, but they haven’t lost to the 49ers by more than three in their last nine meetings. With Jimmy G on the shelf, don’t be surprised if the sharps jump on Arizona before Sunday. They have covered each of the last two weeks.
