A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Though the movements continue to slow down, one team is making its fifth straight appearance on this list. Here are Week 6’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
San Francisco 49ers (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers
Opening: San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
You won’t have to wait long to find out what team we were talking about in the introduction. The 49ers have made this list every week since Week 2 and now take the top spot. Of course the Garoppolo injury shook things up for them, but so did losing at home to the winless Cardinals. On the other side, the Packers move to 0-2 on the road after a Detroit loss that will long be remembered for Mason Crosby’s meltdown. But this is a home primetime game and the 49ers have only covered once this season. Plus, the 49ers are 4-10-3 against the spread in their last 17 Green Bay matchups. It would not be a shock if the Packers are double-digit favorites by this weekend.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
Opening: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Jaguars are fresh off a beating at the hands of Kansas City, but the Cowboys are the latest team to pay for an embarrassing loss on national TV. Not only that, but the Cowboys are scoring just 16.6 points per game, which is worse than all but Arizona and Buffalo. Despite their showing against the Chiefs, the Jaguars are still tied for third in the league in scoring defense. How many points can we realistically expect the Cowboys to score? Though Jacksonville’s offense is dealing with injuries, they’re averaging 3.8 more points and 96.6 more yards per game. They’ve also covered in 10 of their last 15 road games.
Chicago Bears (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Opening: Chicago Bears (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
No surprise here. Though both teams have three wins, the Bears look to be the much better team. The Dolphins had a hot start thanks to a favorable schedule but have since been taken down a few pegs in road games with the Patriots and Bengals. When we last saw the Bears, they were embarrassing the surprising Buccaneers. Though they also haven’t had the toughest schedule, they could easily be undefeated and have a monstrous defense. As if that weren’t enough, they’re coming off a bye. But this line probably won’t grow tremendously. The Dolphins have covered in five of their last six home games while the Bears struggled with Arizona on the road. There is trap game potential if the Bears are caught looking ahead to Week 7 when they host the Patriots.
Buffalo Bills (+10) at Houston Texans
Opening: Buffalo Bills (+8.5) at Houston Texans
The Bills may be 2-3, but they’ve also played some of the worst games of the year. Betting against them on the road will always be attractive, despite the beating they put on Minnesota. They have the league’s worst scoring offense (12.6) and rank 17th in scoring defense (23.6). That said, this may be a little too much respect for Houston. They’ve covered once in their last nine games. That was a 37-34 road win over the Colts where they were favored by one. The argument could be made that they shouldn’t be 10-point favorites against anyone.
